Grain Market Commentary 12/8/25
CBOT Pricing:
Corn traded on both sides of the market, spending some time in positive even as soybeans declined. However, corn failed to hold those gains and finished the session slightly lower. The Mar26 and May26 contracts each closed 1 cent down at $4.4375 and $4.5125, respectively. Calendar spreads were mostly steady, with the Mar-May spread settling at -7.5 cents.
Soybeans opened lower on Sunday night but staged a strong early rally before the morning break. Momentum faded during the day session, and futures moved sharply lower. Jan26 soybeans closed 11.5 cents lower at $10.9375, while the Mar26 contract fell 10.25 cents to close at $11.0575. The Jan-Mar spread settled at -12 cents. The broader trend in soybeans continues to move sideways to lower.
Market Headlines:
President Trump is to unveil a $12 billion aid package on Monday:
White House officials have announced that President Trump will reveal a $12 billion aid package for farmers on Monday. The package aims to support the agricultural industry, which has faced significant challenges due to recent trade policies. Farm groups and Republican lawmakers from agricultural states have pushed for the aid to help farmers cover expenses such as fertilizer, seeds, and other costs for the upcoming growing season. The announcement will take place during a roundtable at the White House at 2 pm on Monday, with Trump, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins, members of Congress, and US farmers in attendance.
Of the $12 billion, $11 billion will be allocated to a Farmer Bridge Assistance program for row crop farmers. The remaining $1 billion will support other crops, with details still to be determined.
US and Chinese officials had a productive video call last week:
On Friday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng held a video call focused on trade and the recent trade agreement between the two nations. The White House said that China has committed to purchasing 12 million metric tons of US soybeans by the end of 2025 and 25 mmt annually for the next three years. However, Bessent later clarified that these purchases would occur by the end of February, not the end of the year. This remark has raised questions about the timing and terms of the purchase agreement.
The USDA is projecting a decrease in corn acreage for the 2026/2027 marketing year:
The USDA forecasts a 3.7% decline in corn acreage for the 2026/2027 marketing year, projecting a total of 95 million acres. Wheat acreage is expected to drop by 2.9% to 44 million acres. Conversely, soybean acreage is set to rise by 4.8% to 85 million acres.
These estimates are based on data from the USDA’s November 14th WASDE report.
China has resumed US soybean purchases over the last several days:
Over the past several days, China has resumed buying US soybeans. Last Friday, US exporters sold 462,000 metric tons of soybeans to China for delivery during the 2025/2026 marketing year. This morning, the USDA confirmed another sale of 132,000 tons of soybeans to China, also for delivery in 2025/2026. Since the US-China trade truce, China has purchased a total of 2.8 million metric tons of soybeans, well below the 12 MMT commitment outlined in the purchase agreement.
Weekly Export Inspections:
(week ended 12.4.25)
US corn export inspections totaled 57.2 million bushels, meeting the high end of market expectations, which ranged from 47.2 to 57.1 million bushels. However, the figure marked a decline from the previous week’s 64.2 million bushels and was the lowest in six weeks. Despite the drop in weekly inspections, the overall export pace remains strong, with an average of 67.4 million bushels per week over the last four weeks. Cumulative corn export inspections have reached 812 million bushels, compared to 480 million bushels at this time last year. The top export destinations for US corn last week were Mexico, Japan, and Taiwan.
US soybean export inspections were recorded at 37.4 million bushels, falling within the market expectation range of 33.1 to 45.9 million bushels. This figure was slightly higher than the previous week’s 34.3 million bushels but well below the 63.9 million bushels exported during the same week last year. Cumulative soybean export inspections now stand at 474 million bushels, down from 866 million bushels at this point last year. Notably, this week’s data includes the first US soybean exports to China for the 2025/26 marketing year. The largest soybean export destinations for the week were Mexico, Taiwan, Japan, and Indonesia.
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