Grain Market Commentary 12/5/25
CBOT Pricing:
Corn slipped 0-3 cents lower. The Mar26 contract failed to close above the 200-day moving average this week and instead finished 2.25 cents lower at $4.45. The May26 contract also closed 2.25 cents lower at $4.5225.
Soybeans settled 10–15 cents below the prior close. The USDA confirmed 462k mt of soybean sales to China, but the market still faced downward pressure following Trump’s newly released strategy to avoid a China–Taiwan conflict (read more below). The Jan26 contract ended the day down 14.25 cents at $11.0525, and the Mar26 contract fell 13 cents to close at $11.1575.
Market Headlines:
Trump revealed a plan to avoid a China–Taiwan conflict:
A newly released US strategy memo states that President Trump aims to prevent conflict with China over Taiwan and the South China Sea by strengthening the military capabilities of the United States and its allies. The strategy document, dated November, was posted online today. It notes, “Deterring a conflict over Taiwan, ideally by preserving military overmatch, is a priority.”
China considers the democratically governed Taiwan its territory and asserts claims over much of the South China Sea. These issues have been recurring points of tension in US–China relations.
The American Petroleum Institute has changed its position in year-round E15 sales:
The American Petroleum Institute has joined a coalition of fuel retailers and biofuel producers supporting year-round E15 sales. The coalition sent a letter to the President urging Congress to pass legislation enabling year-round sales. The letter also called for limits on the EPA’s Small Refinery Exemptions program, which has granted more than 100 full or partial exemptions to small refineries this year.
This coalition reflects an effort by the oil and agricultural sectors to find common ground on US biofuel policy.
US Trade Representative Greer said the US should reduce dependency on China:
Greer proposed reducing US reliance on China by limiting trade to non-sensitive goods and making the overall trade relationship more balanced. Greer also stated that the US is addressing loopholes in the USMCA to prevent Mexico and Canada from serving as transshipment points for Chinese goods, while maintaining strong trade relationships with both countries.
December WASDE report will be released on December 9:
The USDA will release the December WASDE report on Tuesday, December 9. The USDA does not provide US grain and oilseed production estimates within the December reports, but demand-side revisions will be made to the US balance sheet.
The USDA will publish the next Oilseeds Crushings and Grain Crushings reports the following day, Wednesday, December 10.
Weekly USDA Drought Monitor Data:
Drought conditions remained fairly unchanged over the last week in the Corn Belt. A winter snowstorm did improve conditions in Northern Illinois and Southern Wisconsin. There was some deterioration in conditions in southwestern/central Michigan. In the High Plains, drought conditions were mostly steady. There was modest improvement recorded in northeastern Kansas.
US Areas Experiencing Drought:
Corn 30%
Soybeans 30%
Winter Wheat 35%
Sugarbeets 27%
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