Grain Market Commentary 12/4/25
CBOT Pricing:
Corn traded higher during the overnight, wavered in the morning, and finished the day trading higher to settle 1-3 cents higher. Both the Mar26 and May26 contracts closed 3.75 cents higher at $4.4725 and $4.545, respectively. Calendar spreads held flat to slightly firmer; the Mar-May settled at -7.25 cents and the Jul-Dec at -5.75 cents. The corn trend remains sideways to higher.
Soybeans ended the day 0-4 cents higher, with price action mirroring corn. Futures and calendar spreads found support from a firmer CIF bid. The Jan26 contract settled 3.75 cents higher at $11.195. The Mar26 contract closed 3.25 cents higher at $11.2875. The Jan-Mar spread settled at -9.25 cents, and the Jul-Nov settled at +30 cents.
Market Headlines:
USDA 8am export sales announcement:
At 8am, the USDA announced the sale of 393,000 mt of corn to Mexico and 101,000 mt to Colombia for the 2025/2026 marketing year.
US soybean shipments to China are expected to increase over the next few weeks:
In mid-December, at least six soybean vessels are scheduled to load at US Gulf terminals. Another bulk soybean vessel loaded last week and is currently en route to China. US sorghum shipments to China have also resumed after being suspended since March. Although shipments have picked up, Chinese purchases of US soybeans remain well below year-ago levels.
Insurance rates for ships docked at Black Sea ports have dramatically increased:
Insurance rates have risen sharply following a series of Ukrainian attacks on Russian-affiliated vessels. For vessels calling at Russian ports, insurance costs have tripled. On Tuesday, Vladimir Putin stated that Russia was considering retaliatory measures.
President Trump may consider withdrawing from the USMCA trade deal:
According to US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, President Trump may consider withdrawing from the USMCA trade deal. Greer also noted the possibility of negotiating separate trade agreements with Mexico and Canada. The President has cited the 2026 review period built into the USMCA as an opportunity to revise the agreement or allow it to expire.
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