Grain Market Commentary 12/3/25
CBOT Pricing:
Corn surrendered most of yesterday’s gains. The market ignored the report of the highest weekly ethanol production pace of the current marketing year and instead concentrated on concerns that low-protein Argentine wheat could move into feed pricing grids at the expense of corn. The Mar26 contract closed 6.5 cents lower at $4.435, and the May26 contract ended the day down 6.75 cents at $4.5075. The Mar-May spread traded as narrow as -7.0 cents as farmer selling eased and settled at -9.25 cents.
Soybeans closed 8-10 cents lower. Some traders were disappointed by the lack of USDA confirmation regarding this week’s chatter about China purchasing US soybeans. The Jan26 contract closed 9 cents lower at $11.1575. The Mar26 contract settled at $11.255, down 9.5 cents from the prior close.
Market Headlines:
US – China soybean trade:
China has purchased 2.25 mmt so far, or 18.8% of its 12 mmt commitment. To meet the full commitment by year-end, China will need to buy about 2 mmt of soybeans per week, or roughly 487,450 mt per day. Traders report that state-owned importers, including COFCO, plan to increase purchases in the coming weeks. US soybeans remain priced at a premium to South American supplies, limiting commercial incentives for buyers. Today, Treasury Secretary Bessent said China is reaching the “correct cadence” to meet its promised US soybean purchases.
Because US soybeans continue to trade at a premium to South American supplies, many analysts view China’s recent purchases as a short-term political action rather than a signal of long-term trade stability.
US private payrolls decreased in November:
The ADP employment report showed private-sector employment fell by 32,000 jobs in November, following an upward revision of 47,000 jobs for October. Economists had expected an increase of 10,000 jobs ahead of the release.
The BLS will publish the November employment report on December 16. The release will also include October nonfarm payrolls, but the October unemployment rate will be omitted due to data gaps caused by the government shutdown.
US farmer sentiment improved in November:
Purdue University’s CME Group Ag Economy Barometer Index rose 10 points from October to 139, its highest reading since June. The increase reflects stronger expectations for the year ahead. The Future Expectations Index climbed 15 points to 144.
The November survey was completed after the US–China trade truce, which likely supported the improvement in sentiment.
Fifty-nine percent of respondents believe tariffs will strengthen the U.S. agricultural economy in the long run, up one point from October. Meanwhile, 67% say the country is generally headed in the right direction, down five points from the prior month.
Click HERE to view the Purdue University’s CME Group Ag Economy Barometer report.
Weekly EIA Ethanol Data:
(week ended 11.28.25)
US ethanol production increased from the previous week’s 1.113 million barrels per day (mbpd) to 1.126 mbpd. Production landed slightly above market expectations (1.050–1.123 mbpd) and was 4.9% above the same week last year (1.073 mbpd). The weekly rate of 1.126 mbpd set a new all-time record, surpassing the prior record of 1.123 mbpd set five weeks earlier. Despite last week’s record output, production over the past four weeks has averaged 0.2% below the same period last year. Compared with the estimated “needed” pace of +4.6% over last year to meet USDA’s 2025/26 corn-for-ethanol usage projection of 5.6 billion bushels, current trends suggest the estimate may be too high.
US ethanol stocks to 22.511 million barrels, up from 21.968 million barrels the previous week. Stocks reached the top of market expectations (22.2–22.5 million barrels). Although above expectations, inventories remain 2.1% below year-ago levels for the same week.
US ethanol exports were estimated at a five-week high of 170,000 barrels per day (bpd), up from 122,000 bpd. Exports have averaged 149,000 bpd over the past four weeks. Through the first 13 weeks of the 2025/26 marketing year, exports have averaged 129,000 bpd, slightly above the 127,000 bpd average during the same period last year.
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