Grain Market Commentary 12/22/25
CBOT Pricing:
Corn closed 2-4 cents higher, supported by reports of Russian and Ukrainian strikes over the weekend that added uncertainty to foreign export supply. The Mar26 contract settled 3.25 cents higher at $4.47, finishing a penny above its 200-day moving average. The May26 contract ended the day 3 cents higher at $4.545, while the Jul26 contract gained 2.5 cents to close at $4.60.
Soybeans ended the day 4-5 cents higher. Futures drew support from USDA announcements of Chinese buying, while weekly sales and export inspection data had little impact on price direction. The Jan26 contract finished 4 cents higher at $10.5325. The Mar26 contract settled at $10.65, up 5.5 cents. The Jan-Mar spread weakened by 1.5 cents to settle at -11.75, reflecting stronger export demand in deferred months.
Market Headlines:
China imported no US soybeans in the month of November:
Based on Chinese customs data, this marked the third consecutive month with no US soybean imports. During the same month last year, China imported 2.8 mmt of US soybeans. Instead, China sourced supplies from South America. Brazilian soybean imports increased 49% year over year and accounted for 72% of total November imports. Argentine soybean imports rose 634% following the country’s agricultural export tax holiday and represented 22% of total November imports.
China has increased US soybean purchases since the US-China trade truce in October. The US has shipped several soybean cargoes to China in recent weeks. On the sales front, sales announcements from today bring the official Chinese purchase total for the 2025/2026 marketing year to 6mmt.
Friday’s Cattle on Feed report:
As of December 1st, cattle on feed came in at 11.73 million head, down 2% from year-ago levels and in line with market expectations. November placements were 1.60 million head, lower than expected and 11% lower than year ago levels. The report continues to reflect a historically small US cow herd.
Gold and silver have hit all-time highs:
Prices advanced on expectations for two Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 and escalating geopolitical tensions, including US pressure on Venezuela and Ukrainian attacks on Russian shadow fleet tankers. Gold moved 1.9% above the previous October record of $4,381 per ounce, while silver rallied 3.4% and approached $70 per ounce
Fundamental support and debasement-driven buying pushed precious metals higher. Other metals followed the move, with palladium rising 5.1% and platinum trading above $2,000 per ounce for the first time since 2008.
The Brazilian corn production estimate was trimmed:
Safras and Mercado lowered its forecast to 142.9 million metric tons, slightly below its prior estimate. The figure remains well above the USDA’s forecast of 131 mmt and CONAB’s estimate of 138.8 mmt.
Weekly USDA Export Inspections:
(week ended 12.18.25)
US corn export inspections totaled 68.7 million bushels. Inspections fell within the wide range of market expectations at 39.4–86.6 million bushels and exceeded the prior week’s total of 63.2 million bushels. Exports continue to run above year-ago levels, averaging 66.1 million bushels per week over the past four weeks compared to last year’s four-week average of 42.5 million bushels per week. Cumulative export inspections now stand at 955 million bushels, up 68% from last year’s same-week total of 570 million bushels. Last year, corn exports accelerated from mid-January through June and averaged 60 million bushels per week, suggesting the strong year-over-year comparison may narrow in the months ahead. Top export destinations this week included Mexico, South Korea, and Spain.
US soybean export inspections totaled 32.0 million bushels. Inspections landed within market expectations of 29.4–36.7 million bushels and slightly above last week’s 29.8 million bushels. Over the past four weeks, soybean export inspections averaged 33.4 million bushels per week, compared to 67.2 million bushels per week during the same period last year. Export inspections continue to trail year-ago levels due to the absence of a comparable Chinese export program. Cumulative soybean inspections reached 536 million bushels, compared to 993 million bushels at the same point last year. Top destinations included China, which received 386,000 metric tons, and Mexico, which received 178,000 metric tons.
Let’s Talk!
Yield365 – Grain Marketing Simplified
Call: 815.823.2522
Click HERE to learn more
Click HERE to view previous market commentary
Disclaimer: The risk of using futures and options can be substantial and individuals must consider whether they are suitable for their operation. Marketing advice is based on information obtained from third-party sources and is believed to be reliable but not guaranteed by Yield365. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Marketing advice reflects our good faith judgement at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.