Grain Market Commentary 12/19/25
CBOT Pricing:
Corn saw limited movement, closing down 0–1 cent. The Mar26 contract finished down 3/4 of a cent at $4.4375. May futures moved in line with March, leaving the spread unchanged, and closed at $4.515.
Soybeans closed lower for the sixth consecutive session due to weak demand signals and technical selling. January beans declined 3 cents to close at $10.4925, slipping below $10.50 for the first time in two months. The Mar26 contract ended the session down 2.5 cents at $10.595.
Market Headlines:
Beef prices remain high:
In November, the average retail price of ground beef was $6.78 per pound. This was a 2.1% increase from September and a 15% increase from November 2024. Average steak prices increased 8–12% year-over-year, depending on the cut.
Higher beef prices reflect the US beef herd reaching its smallest size in more than 70 years, combined with strong domestic consumer demand. The Trump administration has taken steps aimed at easing consumer prices, including removing tariffs on Brazilian beef and calling for a price-fixing investigation into US packers.
November data indicates inflation has eased:
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index increased 2.7% year-over-year last month. This came in below the 3.1% forecast by economists and down from 3.0% in September. Food prices rose 2.6% year-over-year, compared to 3.0% in September. Energy prices increased 3.0%, down from 3.6% in September.
Some economists caution that this CPI report may be less reliable than usual due to data collection gaps caused by the government shutdown. While the 2.7% reading is lower than recent prints, it remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target.
Sinograin sold one-third of soybeans offered at the Thursday auction:
Sinograin, China’s state-owned grain reserve manager, sold only 33% of the 550,000 mt of soybeans offered at its Thursday auction. This points to weak domestic demand amid ample supplies. Slower auction participation could result in reduced US soybean purchases, as Sinograin had planned to use its portion of the 12 mmt commitment to rotate stocks.
USDA Weekly Drought Monitor:
Rainfall was scattered across the Corn Belt last week, improving conditions in east-central Iowa and central Ohio. Drought conditions persisted in southwestern Kentucky, southwestern Illinois, and southern Missouri, leading to deterioration. Conditions in the High Plains remained mostly unchanged. Eastern South Dakota saw modest improvement.
US Areas Experiencing Drought:
Corn 32%
Soybeans 33%
Winter Wheat 16%
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