Grain Market Commentary 12/17/25
CBOT Pricing:
Corn closed 1-4 cents higher, supported by strong US export demand and a record ethanol production rate. The Mar26 contract led the way up, settling 4 cents higher at $4.405. The May26 contract closed at $4.4775, up 3.25 cents.
Soybeans attempted to move higher overnight but faced pressure during the early session as managed money liquidated long positions. Prices recovered modestly from the session lows but still finished 3-5 cents lower. This marked the 10th lower close in the past 13 sessions. The Jan26 contract settled 4.5 cents lower at $10.5825, while the Mar26 contract closed at $10.6875, down 3 cents.
Market Headlines:
8a.m. USDA flash sales announcements:
The USDA announced the sale of 198,000 mt of soybeans to China and 125,000 mt of soybeans to unknown destinations for delivery during the 2025/26 marketing year. The USDA also reported the sale of 177,055 mt of corn to Mexico for delivery during the 2025/26 marketing year.
Reported soybean export sales now total 864.4 million bushels, representing 53% of the USDA’s 1.635-billion-bushel forecast. Sales reported in the 11/27–12/11 weekly export reports are expected to raise this total. In non–trade war years, the US is typically about 72% sold by mid-December.
The agency also reported a cancellation of 132,000 mt of wheat previously sold to China for delivery during the 2025/26 marketing year.
US labor market remains slow:
On Tuesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that nonfarm payrolls increased by 64,000 in November, following a revised decline of 105,000 in October, the largest monthly drop since 2020. The drop in payrolls was accredited to a sharp drop in federal employment during the shutdown.
The unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, indicating softer hiring conditions and increased labor force participation.
Weekly EIA Ethanol Data:
US ethanol production rose to 1.131 million barrels per day, up from the prior week’s 1.105 million barrels per day. Production exceeded market expectations of 1.085-1.120 mbpd and set a new all-time weekly record. Over the past four weeks, US ethanol production has averaged 1.119 mbpd, above the estimated “needed” pace of 1.114 mbpd to meet the USDA’s 5.6-billion-bushel corn-for-ethanol usage forecast. This marks a positive development, as production during the first 11 weeks of the 2025/26 marketing year averaged 1.074 mbpd, below the “needed” pace.
US ethanol stocks declined to 22.353 million barrels from the previous week’s 22.510 million barrels. The decline aligned with market expectations of 22.0–22.6 million barrels. Stocks remain slightly below year-ago levels and have yet to begin their typical seasonal build, which usually occurs from late November through February. Higher gasoline demand contributed to the modest draw in stocks, with demand rising to 9.078 mbpd from 8.456 mbpd the prior week.
US ethanol exports, as estimated by the EIA, increased to 191,000 bpd from the previous week’s 125,000 bpd. This marked the highest export level in 71 weeks and contributed to the decline in stocks. Over the past four weeks, ethanol exports have averaged 152,000 bpd, compared with 143,000 bpd during the same period last year.
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