Grain Market Commentary 12/16/25
CBOT Pricing:
Corn closed 1-4 cents lower today, following weakness in soybeans. The market also faced pressure from competitively priced Argentine feed wheat, as South Korea opted to purchase feed wheat instead of corn. The Mar26 and May26 contracts closed 3.25 cents lower at $4.365 and $4.445, respectively. The Jul26 contract settled at $4.51.
Soybeans posted losses again today following the EPA’s announcement, yesterday, that it will wait until after the New Year to decide on RVOs, along with news that China will negotiate its share in the Panama Canal. Futures closed 8-10 cents lower. The Jan26 contract filled the $10.63-$10.70 gap left by the Sunday night open after the US-China trade truce and is now trading at pre-truce price levels. The contract ended the session 9 cents lower at $10.6275. The Mar26 contract closed down 9.5 cents at $10.7175.
Market Headlines:
Upcoming China’s Sinograin auction:
China’s Sinograin, the state-owned grain reserve manager, will auction 550k tons of soybeans to domestic buyers this Thursday. This marks the third auction this month, reflecting ample inventories. Authorities aim to create storage capacity ahead of incoming US soybeans, prepare for Brazil’s harvest, and rotate out older stocks.
The Panama ports deal hits an impasse as Trump administration states China’s new demands are unacceptable:
The deal involves the sale of two ports at the Panama Canal and more than 40 additional ports worldwide controlled by CK Hutchison, a Hong Kong-based company. In March, BlackRock and Mediterranean Shipping Co. reached a $22.8 billion agreement to acquire the assets after President Trump raised security concerns regarding Hutchison’s connection to China.
The agreement drew objections from Beijing. China initially pushed for its largest shipping company, state-owned COSCO, to join the deal as an equal partner. Beijing is now demanding that COSCO receive a controlling stake in the transaction. A senior Chinese official said Beijing intends to make control of the ports a bargaining point in broader US-China trade negotiations.
The US lifted sanctions on Belarus potash:
The Trump administration has removed sanctions on Belarus’s potash sector. In exchange, Belarus pardoned 123 political prisoners. Those released include Nobel Peace Prize laureate Ales Bialiatski, opposition figure Maria Kolesnikova, and others. Belarus has historically accounted for roughly one-fifth of global potash exports.
Following the announcement, US fertilizer stocks fell sharply, reflecting concerns about increased global supply. The removal of sanctions allows Belarus to more easily market potash and reintroduce competitive supply to the global market.
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