Grain Market Commentary 12/15/25
CBOT Pricing:
Corn ended the day 1–2 cents lower. Export inspections exceeded market expectations and provided support, but expectations that US biofuel quota decisions will be delayed until after the new year pressured the market. The Mar26 contract closed 1 cent lower at $4.3975. The May26 contract declined 1.25 cents to $4.4775.
Soybeans ended the day mixed. The Jan26 contract settled at $10.7175, while the Mar26 contract fell 5.4 cents to $10.8125. More deferred contracts posted small gains. Soybean futures continue to face pressure from slowing export demand as the typical US export window narrows and expectations build for a large Brazilian crop. In addition, November NOPA crush data released today suggested moderating domestic demand, though volumes remained well above last year’s levels (read more below).
Market Headlines:
US 2026 biofuels quotas are now expected to be delayed until after the new year:
The EPA originally planned to finalize the quotas by the end of October. The agency has now scheduled a stakeholder meeting for early next year to discuss the rule and continues to review public comments. It is likely that the quotas will be considered alongside other energy and agricultural policy decisions as part of a broader agreement between energy and agricultural policy interests.
Earlier in the year, the EPA proposed higher renewable fuel requirements for 2026 and 2027, including tighter restrictions on the use of imported biofuels.
China’s US soybeans purchases:
On Friday, US exporters sold 132,000 mt of soybeans to China for delivery during the 2025/2026 marketing year. To date, China has officially purchased 3.377 mmt of US soybeans during the current marketing year. These sales have been reported through 12 flash sales.
Trade chatter suggests China may have purchased a significantly larger volume. China could account for a large portion of sales reported to “unknown destinations” and may have made several non-reportable purchases during the government shutdown. Some analysts estimate total Chinese purchases of US soybeans could range between 6–8 mmt, well above the official figure of 3.377 mmt.
November NOPA Crush:
NOPA reported that its members crushed 216 million bushels of soybeans in November. This figure fell on the lower end of market expectations of 213–224.3 million bushels and declined from the October crush of 227.6 million bushels. However, it increased 11.8% from November last year, when members crushed 193.2 million bushels.
Soybean oil stocks totaled 1.513 billion pounds, above the previous month’s 1.305 billion pounds and higher than the market expectation range of 1.32–1.508 billion pounds. Soybean oil yield averaged 11.56 pounds per bushel, down from 11.65 pounds in October and below the November 2022 yield of 11.90 pounds per bushel.
Weekly USDA Export Inspections:
(week ended 12.11.25)
US corn export inspections totaled 62.3 million bushels. This figure came in at the top end of market expectations of 39.4–63.0 million bushels but declined slightly from the previous week’s 68.5 million bushels. While this marked the lowest weekly corn export inspection total in five weeks, exports continue to run at a historically strong pace. Over the past six weeks, corn export inspections have averaged 66.9 million bushels per week, compared with last year’s average of 38.5 million bushels during the same period. Cumulative export inspections now stand at 886 million bushels, well above last year’s total of 525 million bushels at this point. Top export destinations for the week included Mexico, Japan, and Spain.
US soybean export inspections totaled 29.2 million bushels. This volume declined from the previous week’s 37.7 million bushels, fell well below the same week last year at 62.3 million bushels, and marked the lowest weekly total in ten weeks. Cumulative soybean export inspections now stand at 504 million bushels, representing a 46% deficit compared with last year’s cumulative total of 928 million bushels. Top export destinations for the week included China, Germany, and Mexico.
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