Grain Market Commentary 12/12/25
CBOT Pricing:
Corn finished 3-6 down on the day and 2-4 cents down on the week. The Mar26 contract lead the way down, closing down 6 cents at $4.405. The May26 closed at $4.4875, 5.5 cents down.
Soybeans struggled this week, closing 10-18 cents down today and 28-30 down on the week. The Jan26 contract fell 16.5 cents to $10.7625 and the Mar26 closed at $10.8625, 16 cents down.
Market Headlines:
Fertilizer stocks surged on Thursday:
Fertilizer stocks rose after a Ukrainian drone struck two Russian fertilizer plants. Although these facilities account for a small share of total capacity, the incident prompted the market to price in broader geopolitical risks to fertilizer supply chains. Additional concerns emerged when President Trump threatened “severe tariffs” on Canadian fertilizer.
The Trump administration lifted tariffs on most US fertilizer imports, including urea, ammonium nitrate, UAN, ammonium sulfate, TSP, DAP, and MAP.
China continues buying:
The USDA reported a sale of 132,000 mt of US soybeans to China for the 2025/26 marketing year. The announcement came through the agency’s daily reporting system.
Russia attacked two Ukrainian ports:
Three Turkish-owned vessels, including one carrying food supplies, were damaged in the attack. The strike occurred hours after Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan told Russian President Vladimir Putin that a limited ceasefire covering energy facilities and ports could be beneficial.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said the attack “proves once again that Russians not only fail to take the current opportunity for diplomacy seriously enough, but also continue the war precisely to destroy normal life in Ukraine.”
USDA Weekly Drought Monitor:
Large portions of the Corn Belt experienced below-average temperatures last week, with most precipitation falling as snow. Drought conditions remained largely unchanged across the region; however, northeastern Missouri and western Indiana saw conditions worsen. In the High Plains, drought conditions also held steady overall, though southern Kansas and northeastern Oklahoma recorded further deterioration.
US Areas Experiencing Drought:
Corn 31%
Soybeans 31%
Winter Wheat 34%
Sugarbeets 27%
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