DeLong Commentary

CBOT Pricing:

Corn closed 2-4 cents lower. Demand remains steady and the trend remains sideways. The Mar26 contract finished the day at $4.44, 4 cents down from the prior settle. The May26 contract closed 3.75 cents lower at $4.5175.

Soybeans posted 1-5 cents of gains today. Soybeans were supported by soybean export reports and addition China soybean purchase chatter. The Jan26 contract led the gains, ending 4.75 cents higher at $10.92. The Mar26 contract finished 3.2 cents up at $11.1975.

Market Headlines:

Uncertainty about Chinese US soybean purchases has grown:

US Trade Representative Jamison Greer made new comments regarding the timeline for China’s planned purchases of US soybeans. Greer said the deadline for China to buy the agreed-upon 12 mmt of US soybeans is not the end of the calendar year but the end of the growing season. The White House’s original fact sheet stated that China would complete these purchases by the end of 2025. Greer did not clearly define what he meant by “growing season” and stated there is a “discrepancy” between the fact sheet and the actual deadline. These conflicting statements have increased uncertainty surrounding the purchase timeline.

To date, China has purchased 3 mmt of US soybeans during the 2025/26 marketing year.

John Deere responds to President Trump’s call to reduce agricultural machinery costs:

On Monday, President Trump called for lower tractor prices while discussing the Farmer Bridge Assistance payments, arguing that extensive environmental regulations had pushed machinery costs higher. On Tuesday, John Deere responded by saying it is helping farmers reduce expenses. The company highlighted that its newest equipment models include advanced automation intended to lower labor and chemical costs.

Agricultural equipment prices, like many input costs, surged after the Covid-19 pandemic due to broad inflationary pressures.

POTUS Trump will begin final interviews for Fed chair candidates:

President Trump will start final interviews this week with candidates for Federal Reserve chair. He recently said he already knew whom he intended to select to succeed current Chair Jerome Powell. It remains unclear whether the interviews indicate a change in his thinking or simply represent the final stage of the formal process. The current list of candidates includes former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, BlackRock fixed-income chief Rick Rieder, and current Federal Reserve Board Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman. Trump says his choice for the next Federal Reserve chair is likely to be announced “early next year”.

Weekly EIA Ethanol Data:

(week ended 12.5.25)

Estimated US ethanol exports were 125k bpd, down 45k bpd from the previous week. Exports over the last four weeks average 141k bpd, up from last year’s same period average of 138k bpd.

US ethanol production came in at 1.105 million barrels per day last week, down from the prior week’s 1.126 mbpd but 2.5% above the same week last year at 1.078 mbpd. Production continues to track below the estimated weekly pace required to meet the USDA’s 2025/26 projection of 5.6 billion bushels of corn used for ethanol. Over the past four weeks, ethanol production averaged 1.109 mbpd, a 1.3% increase from the same period last year but still well short of the “needed” pace.

US ethanol stocks totaled 22.510 million barrels, essentially unchanged from the previous week’s 22.511 million barrels and slightly below the same week last year, down about 6 million gallons.

Estimated US ethanol exports were 125,000 bpd, a decline of 45,000 bpd from the previous week. Over the last four weeks, exports averaged 141,000 bpd, up from 138,000 bpd during the same period last year.

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