Grain Market Commentary 11/7/25
CBOT Pricing:
Soybeans were up 4-10 cents after being down 20+ cents on Thursday. The Jan-Mar spread also recovered, settling at -8.75 cents, after trading as narrow as -4 cents on Tuesday and as wide as -10.5 cents on Thursday. The Jan26 contract closed the day at $11.17, up 9.5 cents on the day and up 1.75 cents on the week. The Mar26 settled up 8 cents since the prior settle at $11.255 and ended the week 2 cents higher.
Corn ended the day close to unchanged despite gains in soybeans and the EPA’s announcement on SRE’s (read more below). The Dec25 contract had a less than a 4-cent trading range, closing 1.4 cents down since the prior settle at $4.2725. The Dec25 contract ended the week down 4.25 cents. The Mar26 contract closed out the week 2 cents down and ended the day 1 cents down, at $4.4175. The trend in corn remains higher despite lower closes on Thursday and Friday.
Market Headlines:
US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) approved 14 small refinery biofuel waivers:
The US EPA approved 14 requests from small refineries for full or partial exemptions from federal biofuel blending requirements. This decision clears most of the backlog of exemption requests that had accumulated under the Biden administration. The waivers, two full and twelve partial, have reignited tensions between oil refiners seeking relief from blending costs and biofuel producers who say the exemptions hurt farmers and renewable fuel markets. The Renewable Fuels Association criticized the move, saying it adds uncertainty to agriculture and fuel markets already strained by record harvests.
Soybean futures fell off on Thursday amid limited Chinese purchases:
The Jan26 soybean contract dropped nearly 27 cents to $11.08. The sell off came after China failed to make a significant purchase of US soybeans. Traders have been waiting for confirmation of China’s agreement to buy US soybeans following last week’s US-China trade truce. Although China announced a suspension of retaliatory tariffs on US goods, soybeans remain subject to a 13% import tariff.
COFCO held a formal soybean procurement signing ceremony on Thursday:
The signing was announced at the US-China Agricultural Trade Cooperation Forum in Shanghai. It did not disclose the purchase volume or the seller’s identity. Under the trade truce, China agreed to buy 12 million metric tons by January and 25 million metric tons annually over the next three years, but it has not yet confirmed these figures.
USDA Drought Monitor Data:
The USDA released its weekly drought monitor data on Thursday, which showed rainfall in parts of Kentucky and Ohio brought significant improvement. Additionally, slight gains were recorded in south-central Indiana, southern Illinois, and southwest Missouri. Conversely, a lack of rain in eastern Minnesota and southeast Iowa has caused a deterioration in conditions.
US Areas Experiencing Drought
- Corn: 30%
- Soybeans: 32%
- Winter Wheat: 38%
- Spring Wheat: 17%
- Cattle: 26%
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