Grain Market Commentary 11/6/25
CBOT Pricing:
Soybeans broke hard today, closing 15-28 cents down. The trade was disappointed in the lack of follow up interest for US soybeans from China and some non-China export business moved from the US Gulf to Brazil this week. The Jan26 contract closed 26.75 cents down at $11.075 while the Mar26 settled 24.5 cents lower at $11.18. Slumping CIF soybean basis, the lack of nearby Chinese interest, and some business moving from the Gulf to Brazil has drove soybean spread weakening.
Corn followed soybeans and pulled back. Corn settled the day 3-7 cents down. The Dec25 contract continues to find resistance above $4.35, today’s open, and ended the day 6.5 cents down at $4.2875. Mar26 also closed 6.56 cents down at $4.43.
Market Headlines:
China will remove retaliatory tariffs of up to 15% on US agricultural goods:
China’s Finance Ministry announced on Wednesday that it will remove tariffs on US agricultural products, including soybeans, corn, wheat, and sorghum, starting November 10. However, US soybeans will continue to face a 13% import tariff, keeping them more expensive and less competitive than Brazilian soybeans, which carry a 3% import tariff. China will also maintain the 10% tariffs imposed in response to President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs. Following the tariff reduction, a Chinese buyer has reportedly showed interested in purchasing US wheat.
China has likely purchased US sorghum and wheat this week:
Traders cited by Reuters reported that China purchased two cargoes of US wheat this week, including one cargo of US spring wheat and one of US soft white wheat. In addition, the chairman of the US Grains and Bioproducts Council confirmed that at least one shipment of US sorghum is being sent to China. On Wednesday, amid the China trade chatter, SRW and HRW futures reached three-month highs.
Corn yields are lower than the record-breaking averages that were expected:
As the US corn harvest nears completion, overall yields are slightly below last year’s levels. Some states, such as Minnesota and South Dakota, reported yields above last year’s averages, while lower yields in Illinois and Iowa offset those gains.
Analysts continue to debate the national yield average, with many suggesting it may be near or below last year’s 179.3 bushels per acre (bpa). This contrasts with the USDA’s most recent estimate of 186.7 bpa. An October Agweb survey placed the national average at 178.5 bpa.
A Chinese firm signs $5.2 billion of agriculture deals with traders:
Xiamen C&D, a Chinese supply chain operator and property developer, announced on Thursday that it signed over $5.2 billion in contracts with seven agribusinesses and trading firms, including Cargill, Louis Dreyfus Company, Syngenta, CHS, Olam, BTG Pactual, and Cutrale.
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