Grain Market Commentary 11/5/25
CBOT Pricing:
Soybeans ended the day up 8-14 cents with March leading the way. The Mar26 contract closed 14.25 cents higher than the prior settle at $11.42. The Jan 26 contract ended 12.75 cents higher at $11.1975. This resulted in the Jan-Mar spread softening to as wide as -8.25 cents and closed at -7.75 cents. The Supreme Courts skepticism over Trump’s authority to impose the tariffs he has was seen as supportive to the bean market (read more below).
Corn also seemed to be supported by the Supreme Court’s skepticism, closing 2-4 cents higher despite cash weakness. The Dec-Mar spread traded as wide as -14.5 and closed at -14.25, its widest close since October 27th. The Dec25 contract closed 3.75 cents higher at $4.3525 and the Mar26 contract ended the day 4.75 cents higher at $4.4950. The trend in December corn remains higher.
Market Headlines:
The Trump administration is still planning on providing additional aid for farmers:
Once the government shutdown ends, the administration intends to provide up to $12 billion in aid to farmers affected by recent trade policies. The final amount may be adjusted based on market reactions to the newly negotiated trade deal with China, according to USDA Deputy Secretary Stephan Vaden. The proposed aid would follow a structure similar to the Market Facilitation Program from President Trump’s previous term.
US farmer sentiment improved in October:
Purdue University’s CME Group Ag Economy Barometer Index rose to 129, up 3 points from September. The increase was driven by an 8-point rise in the Index of Current Conditions to 130. Optimism remains stronger among livestock producers than among row crop farmers, supported by continued profitability in the cattle industry.
Additionally, 58% of respondents said they believe tariff policies will strengthen the U.S. agricultural economy, up 7% from September. However, 16% of respondents remain uncertain about the impact of tariffs, an 8% increase from the spring survey. Despite ongoing questions about trade policy, 70% of respondents believe the U.S. is moving in the right direction.
Note: This data was collected from October 13–17, prior to the announcement of the U.S.–China trade truce.
Click HERE to read more of the Purdue/CME Ag Barometer report.
Supreme Court justices appear skeptical about the legality of the Trump administration tariffs:
On Wednesday, November 5, Supreme Court justices expressed skepticism regarding the legality of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. The justices questioned Solicitor General D. John Sauer about the methods used to enact the tariffs, which critics argue encroach on Congress’s power to tax.
Sauer stated that “these are regulatory tariffs, not revenue-raising tariffs,” adding that “any revenue raised was only incidental.” He argued that the tariffs are based on the executive branch’s authority to regulate foreign commerce, rather than on revenue collection.
According to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, if upheld, the tariffs could generate $3 trillion in additional U.S. revenue by 2035.
The Supreme Court did not issue a decision today, and it remains unclear when the ruling will be released.
Weekly EIA Ethanol Data:
(week ended 10.31.25)
US ethanol production rose to 1.123 million barrels per day (mbpd) from the previous week’s 1.091 mbpd, exceeding market expectations of 1.071–1.115 mbpd. This marks a new all-time record for weekly ethanol production and aligns with the estimated pace needed to reach USDA’s 5.6-billion-bushel corn-for-ethanol target. However, this past week’s year-over-year production growth of +1.6% remains below the +4.3% pace needed from November – August of the 2025/26 marketing year to meet USDA projections.
US Ethanol stocks increased to 22.655 million barrels from 22.367 million barrels the previous week, surpassing expectations of 22.00–22.55 million barrels. Current stocks are 2.9% higher than year-ago levels and are the highest for late October/early November in seven years. EIA estimated ethanol exports at 107k barrels per day, down from the prior week’s 175k bpd (a 39-week high).
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