Grain Market Commentary 11/4/25
CBOT Pricing:
Soybeans closed 10-13 cents lower. The decline eased overbought conditions that developed after last week’s US-China trade news. The Jan26 contract ended 12.75 cents lower at $11.215, while the Mar26 contract settled 12.5 cents lower at $11.2775.
Corn finished 1-3 cents lower, following soybeans’ downward movement. Dec25 corn settled at $4.315, down 2.75 cents. The Mar26 contract fell 2.0 cents to close at $4.4475. The Dec/Mar spread finished a penny weaker at a 13.5 cent carry.
Market Headlines:
China increases purchases of Brazilian soybeans:
Chinese buyers booked 20 cargoes of Brazilian soybeans, with half scheduled for December delivery and the rest for March – July. This rise in buying comes as Brazilian soybeans hold a price advantage over US Gulf supplies. It also follows expectations that the recent US-China trade deal could lead to the resumption of US soybean purchases.
Meanwhile, the market is waiting for official confirmation from China on import tariffs cuts for US soybeans. News outlets reported Chinese purchases of about 250,000 mt of U.S. soybeans over the past week, though more private deals may also have taken place.
U.S. corn and soybean harvests near completion:
According to a Reuters poll, the US corn harvest reached 83% completion as of Sunday, down from 91% a year ago. The soybean harvest was estimated at 91%, slightly below last year’s 94%. Mostly dry weather across the Corn Belt last week helped farmers make steady progress.
Even though crop progress reports remain suspended due to the government shutdown, the USDA plans to release its Crop Production and WASDE reports on November 14.
StoneX updates U.S. crop yield estimates:
StoneX raised its average US corn yield estimate to 186 bpa, up slightly from October. The firm now projects total corn production at 16.75 billion bushels, about 10 million bushels higher than its prior estimate. For soybeans, StoneX trimmed its yield forecast to 53.6 bpa from 53.9 bpa, lowering production to 4.30 billion bushels from 4.32 billion.
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