Grain Market Commentary 11/3/25
CBOT Pricing:
Soybeans extended their recent gains, supported by ongoing US-China trade optimism and firm export demand. January 2026 soybeans settled 19.25 cents higher at $11.345, marking a 51-cent increase since Monday, October 27. The March 2026 contract closed 16.5 cents higher at $11.4025.
Corn finished the session 3-4.5 cents higher after spending much of the morning in negative territory. Strength in soybeans, reporting of lower-than-expected yields, and steady export demand provided late-day support. The December 2025 and March 2026 contracts each gained 3.25 cents, closing at $4.4375 and $4.4725, respectively.
Market Headlines:
China is seeking US wheat:
China has not purchased any US wheat since early October of last year. This week, a major grain importer in Asia’s largest economy made inquiries for US cargoes scheduled to load between December and February. These inquiry’s follow last week’s trade dispute between the U.S. and China. On the news, the December 2026 wheat contract advanced nearly 10 cents to settle at $5.34 on Friday.
The USDA will release its November WASDE:
The November WASDE report is scheduled for release on November 14, despite the ongoing government shutdown. The report will offer key updates on US corn and soybean production, data that traders have awaited since September. In addition, NASS will publish the Crop Progress and Cattle on Feed reports. However, the large number of furloughed USDA employees has raised concerns about the accuracy and completeness of the data.
A federal judge ordered the Trump administration to use contingency funds to pay SNAP benefits:
A federal judge has ordered the Trump administration to use contingency funds to cover SNAP benefits, requiring the funds to be used by Monday or partially by Wednesday. The judge cited potential irreparable harm from the shutdown and rejected the USDA’s argument that it lacked authority. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated the administration will not appeal the ruling, and payments could begin as early as Wednesday.
Harvest Prices came in below the spring crop insurance safety net:
The December corn harvest price averaged $4.22 per bushel, and November soybeans averaged $10.36, both below their spring crop insurance guarantees of $4.70 for corn and $10.54 for soybeans. Harvest prices are based on the average closing prices for November soybeans and December corn throughout October.
Revenue protection uses the higher of the spring or harvest price and covers nearly 90 million acres of corn and 75 million acres of soybeans. Given that prices have not declined significantly this season, insurance payouts are unlikely unless producers experience notable yield losses.
Weekly Export Inspections:
(week ending 10.31.25)
US corn export inspections totaled 71.7 million bushels, near the upper end of market expectations ranging from 39.4 to 72.8 million bushels. Shipments increased sharply from the previous week’s 42.6 million bushels and were well above the 31.5 million bushels inspected during the same week last year.
Export activity for the start of the 2025/26 marketing year remains strong, averaging 53.6 million bushels per week over the past four weeks versus 31.3 million bushels a year ago. Cumulative inspections have reached 482.5 million bushels, the highest total for late October/early November in 45 years.
To meet the USDA’s export projection of 2.975 billion bushels, weekly inspections will need to average 52.6 million bushels for the remainder of the marketing year. Top corn destinations for the week included Mexico, South Korea, and Japan.
US soybean export inspections totaled 35.5 million bushels, within market expectations of 29.4 to 51.4 million bushels, but down from 42.6 million bushels the previous week. The pace remains well below last year’s levels. Over the past four weeks, soybean inspections have averaged 43.5 million bushels per week, compared with 86.4 million during the same period last year.
Cumulative inspections now stand at 286 million bushels, 40% below last year’s 476 million and the lowest for this time of year in 16 years. To reach the USDA’s export forecast of 1.685 billion bushels, shipments will need to average 31.1 million bushels per week through the rest of the marketing year. Top soybean destinations last week were Egypt, Mexico, and Italy.
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