Grain Market Commentary 11/26/25
CBOT Pricing:
Corn finished 3-9 cents higher and traded higher throughout the day due to technical support underneath the market. Corn markets also found support from stronger cash markets and optimism surrounding US exports. The Dec25 contract closed 8.25 cents up at $4.3175 and the Mar26 contract ended 7.0 cents higher at $4.4525.
Soybeans followed corn upward, closing 2-7 cents higher. The Jan26 contract ended the day 6.75 cents higher at $11.315. The Mar26 contract settled at $11.4075, 6.0 cents higher. Soybean spreads were firmer with the Jan-Mar spread settling the day at -9.25 cents.
Market Headlines:
China has made substantial purchases of US soybeans:
Following the Trump-Xi phone call, Chinese buyers have booked at least 10 cargoes of US soybeans, worth around $300 million. During the phone call Trump urged China to increase soybean purchases and President Xi agreed.
The cargoes are planned for January shipment from both US Gulf and PNW ports.
A potential peace deal between Ukraine and Russia:
Yesterday, multiple sources reported that Ukraine is ready to move forward with peace framework aimed to end the war. The proposed peace framework is US-backed, and US officials are set to meet with both Ukrainian and Russian officials to continue negotiations.
The original 28-point US plan, that was seen as favorable to Russia, has since been revised down to 19 points from input from both sides. Russia has yet to confirm its agreement to the current framework. There is not timeline for a final deal.
Markets will be closed tomorrow for Thanksgiving:
After today’s close, the next trade will be Friday at 8:30 am.
Weekly EIA Ethanol Data:
(week ended 11.21.25)
US ethanol production was 1.113 million barrels/day, up from the previous week’s 1.091 million barrels per day. This is the highest production level in three weeks, but still slightly below last year’s same week production of 1.119 mbpd. Production over the last four weeks averaged 1.101 mbpd, 1.0% below last year’s same period production. Ethanol production since early September has averaged 1.077 mbpd, which is only 0.8% above last year’s production, well below the “needed” pace to reach the USDA’s 2025/2026 5.6-billion-bushel corn for ethanol usage estimate. This does raise the concern that the USDA’s estimate is too high.
US ethanol stocks were 339,000 barrels lower than the previous week at 21.968 million barrels. Stocks are at the lowest level they have been in five weeks and a 3.9% deficit to last year’s late November stocks.
US ethanol exports declined last week to 122k barrels per day. Down from the previous week’s 145k bpd. Exports have averaged 133k bpd over the last four weeks compared to 139k bpd during the same period last year.
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