DeLong Commentary

CBOT Pricing:

Soybeans ended the day 1–5 cents lower after a volatile session. Futures rallied on new China trade headlines but almost immediately retreated (details below). Additional pressure came from the weakest export inspections in six weeks. The Jan26 contract settled at $11.2325, down 1.75 cents. The Mar26 contract closed 2.25 cents lower at $11.32.

Corn closed slightly weaker, down 0–2 cents. Nearby futures slipped nearly 2 cents as First Notice Day approaches, and fresh market news remained limited. Corn found some support from another solid week of export inspections. The Dec25 contract finished 1.75 cents lower at $4.2375. The Mar26 contract ended the day down 0.75 cent at $4.3675.

Market Headlines:

A record corn harvest is creating a storage shortage in Wisconsin:

The USDA’s latest 2025 Wisconsin average corn yield estimate stands at a record 183 bpa. Many farmers are reporting yields 20–30 bushels above previous highs. Grain elevators across the state are at or above capacity, leading some to store corn in outdoor piles. Limited elevator space, combined with slow soybean sales, has also prompted some farmers to invest in bagging equipment.

China continues to buy US soybeans:

The USDA reported a sale of 123,000 metric tons (4.5 million bushels) of soybeans to China this morning at 8 a.m. US Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said she expects the agreements on Chinese soybean purchases to be “inked” in the next few weeks.

President Trump has accepted Chinese President Xi’s invitation to visit:

During a call this morning, President Trump accepted President Xi’s invitation to visit China in April. The two leaders also discussed plans for President Xi to visit the United States later in the year. Soybean futures briefly rose eight cents on the headlines before retreating.

The USDA is expected to announce further details on farmer aid:

Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said the administration expects to outline a farmer aid package within the next two weeks. In early October, the administration considered an assistance package of at least $10 billion (could be lowered due to improved market conditions) to offset trade-related impacts, modeled after the first-term Market Facilitation Program. While market conditions have improved since then, officials maintain that added support is needed to help farmers sustain operations ahead of the next planting season.

Weekly US Export Inspections:

(week ended 11/20/25)

US corn export inspections came in at 64.3 million bushels. This figure was within market expectations of 49.2 – 68.9 million bushels and was slightly lower than the previous week’s 81.3 million bushels (a 2025/26 marketing year high). While this last week’s corn export inspections slipped from the previous week’s level, it is still notably above last year’s same week exports of 39.7 million bushels. Corn export inspections over the last four weeks averaged 67.9 million bushels/week, compared to last year’s same period average of 34.4 million bushels/week. Cumulative export inspections are now at 688 million bushels, up 72% from last year’s 400 million bushels. Top corn export destinations for the week were Mexico, Japan, and South Korea.

US soybean export inspections for last week were 29.4 million bushels. This was at the bottom of market expectations of 24.8 – 51.4 million bushels, down from the previous week’s 44.3 million bushels, and well below last year’s same week soybean export inspections of 77.9 million bushels. This is the lowest level in 7 weeks. Cumulative export inspections are now at 402 million bushels, down from last year’s 724 million bushels. Top soybean export destinations were Bangladesh, Taiwan, Mexico, and Italy.

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