Grain Market Commentary 11/21/25
CBOT Pricing:
Soybeans finished the day 0–3 cents higher on fund buying after the Trump administration indicated it may allow Nvidia to sell chips to China. The Jan26 contract ended 2.5 cents higher at $11.25 (up 0.5 cents on the week), while the Mar26 contract closed 2.25 cents higher at $11.3425 (down 1.75 cents on the week).
Corn finished slightly lower, down 0–1 cent. The Dec25 contract slipped 0.75 cents to $4.255 (down 4.75 cents on the week), and the Mar26 contract settled at $4.375, unchanged from the prior close (down 6.5 cents on the week). Soybeans are expected to remain the directional leader, while corn continues to show solid support at current levels.
Market Headlines:
This week brought China’s largest US soybean purchase in 2 years:
The USDA confirmed that China purchased 1.584 MMT of US soybeans over three days this week, marking the largest single-week total since November 2023.
Following the Trump–Xi meeting in October, Bessent and Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins stated that China agreed to buy 12 MMT of US soybeans by year-end. Last week, Trump said the purchases would occur before spring. Beijing has not yet officially confirmed the volume, but Bessent noted that the agreement could be signed by late next week.
The US removed tariffs on certain Brazilian agriculture imports:
The tariff removal took effect on November 13. Refunds will be issued for duties already collected. Many of the products affected are items that cannot be produced domestically in the United States.
USDA Weekly Drought Monitor:
The Corn belt remained dry this last week. Drought conditions worsened in eastern Illinois, eastern Iowa, northern Minnesota, and a large portion of Wisconsin. Nearly 74% of Illinois is experiencing drought conditions, with 4.5% of the state under extreme drought.
In the High Plains, conditions have remained dry with above average temperatures. Conditions have worsened in eastern Nebraska and southern Oklahoma.
US Areas Experiencing Drought:
Corn: 32%
Soybeans: 33%
Winter Wheat: 41%
Spring Wheat: 18%
Cattle: 33%
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