Grain Market Commentary 11/19/25
CBOT Pricing:
Soybeans traded steadily lower throughout the session, ending the day with losses of 9-19 cents. The Jan26 contract led the way down, finishing 17.25 cents lower at $11.3625. The Mar26 contract ended 15.75 cents lower at $11.525.
Corn ended 5-8 cents lower than the prior settle. The Dec25 corn contract settled at $4.2975, 7 cents lower. The Mar26 contract ended 8 cents lower at $4.415.
Market Headlines:
Recent shifts in market conditions may influence the likelihood of additional farmer assistance:
In early October, the Trump administration considered a potential assistance package of at least $10 billion to help offset the effects of recent trade policies. The plan was expected to resemble the Market Facilitation Program from Trump’s first term. According to Deputy Secretary of Agriculture Stephen Vaden, market conditions have improved since those discussions began. Recent trade agreements with countries including China, Pakistan, and Japan have resulted in new commitments to purchase US agricultural commodities. The improvement in conditions may impact the likelihood of addition assistance for farmers.
USDA Flash Sale Reports:
On Tuesday, the USDA confirmed that US exporters sold 29 million bushels (792,000 mt) of soybeans to China. This follows the 9 million bushels (232,000 mt) reported last week. This morning, Wednesday 11.19.25, the USDA confirmed the purchase of four vessels sold yesterday to China.
The USDA released its first crop progress report since the government reopened:
As of Sunday, US corn harvest progress reached 91% complete, behind last year’s 98% and the five-year average of 94%. US soybeans were 95% harvested, compared with 98% last year and the five-year average of 96%. Furthermore, the US winter wheat crop was rated 45% good to excellent as of Sunday. This is down from 49% last year but slightly above the five-year average of 44%.
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Trump Administration May Delay Biofuel Import Credit Cuts:
The administration is considering a one- to two-year delay of proposed cuts to incentives for imported biofuels. Sources report that no final decision has been made. A delay would likely please domestic oil refiners but could create concerns among biofuel producers and US farmers.
The proposed incentive cuts aim to support domestic production and reduce reliance on foreign supplies as part of the administration’s “America First” energy initiative.
Weekly EIA Ethanol Data:
(week ended 11.14.25)
US ethanol production increased from 1.075 million barrels per day to 1.091 million barrels per day, in line with market expectations of 1.050–1.110 mbpd. Since the start of the 2025/26 marketing year, ethanol production has averaged 1.074 mbpd, 0.9% above the same period last year. However, production continues to run below the pace needed to meet the USDA’s corn-for-ethanol usage projection.
US ethanol stocks rose to 22.307 million barrels from 22.219 million barrels the previous week, within expectations of 22.00–22.740 million barrels. Stocks remain 11 million gallons below the same week last year but are still above the five-year average for this week.
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