Grain Market Commentary 11/18/25
CBOT Pricing:
Soybeans retreated after posting new highs in the overnight session on reports of Chinese purchases (see details below). Soybeans slipped 1 – 4 cents, with Jan 26 soybeans finishing 3.75 cents lower at $11.535. The Mar 26 contract closed 3 cents lower at $11.6025.
Corn ended the session mixed. The Dec 25 contract traded within a 5.25-cent range and settled 2 cents higher at $4.3675. Mar 26 corn finished 1.5 cents higher at $4.495.
Market Headlines:
China has purchased nearly 1 million tons of US soybeans:
Reuters reported that China bought at least 14 cargoes of US soybeans on Monday, marking what traders believe is the country’s largest purchase since at least January. Eight of the cargoes are scheduled for December and January shipment from the US Gulf, while the remaining cargoes are set for January shipment from the Pacific Northwest.
Asian traders estimate that COFCO paid $2.35–$2.40 per bushel over the Jan 26 CBOT contract for Gulf shipments and $2.15–$2.20 per bushel over the Jan 26 contract for PNW shipments. By comparison, Brazilian new-crop soybeans are currently priced around $1.25 per bushel over the Jan 26 CBOT contract. The premium suggests China may be following through on commitments to buy US soybeans, potentially for political considerations rather than purely commercial ones.
The USDA released corrections to its daily flash sales on Monday:
The USDA revised initial report that China purchased 232,000 mt of soybeans on Monday. The USDA reducing the figure after a cancellation of 100,000 mt to 132,000 mt. With this adjustment, China has purchased 232,000 mt across two sales during the government shutdown.
The USDA also withdrew a previously reported corn sale to Japan.
The US dairy herd is now at its highest level in more than 25 years:
The US dairy herd has increased to 9.54 million head, the largest since 1993. Producers have retained more cows for breeding, contributing to greater production of beef-on-dairy calves entering the beef supply. This strategy has grown more common as the US beef cow herd has declined to its lowest level in more than 70 years.
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