DeLong Commentary

CBOT Pricing:

Soybeans gained 13-33 cents on the day with the Jan26 contract leading the way. Gains were made based on rumors that China was buying US soybeans (read more below) and that traders are scared to be short soybeans which caused liquidation. The Jan26 contract closed at $11.5725, 32.75 cents higher than the prior settle. The Mar26 contract finished 27.25 cents higher at $11.6325. The Jul-Nov spread settled at +46.25 cents after falling from +52.5 to +35.75.

Corn was drug up by the soybean rally today, finishing 2-5 cents higher. The Dec25 contract led the way, fishing 4.5 cents higher at $4.3475. The Mar26 contract closed 4 cents at $4.48. The Dec-Mar spread traded as narrow as -12.75 cents and settled at -13.25 cents.

Market Headlines:

Concerns over China’s commitment to purchase US soybeans and the Trump administration’s response:

On Friday, the USDA released data that showed China has purchased only 332,000 mt of US soybeans following the trade truce. This means that China has only purchased less than 3% of the 12mmt that they have “agreed” to purchase by January 1st. China currently has little to no incentive to purchase US soybeans because there are abundant supplies in Brazil that are currently at a lower price.

Over the weekend, Trump stated that Chinese officials assured that they would buy US soybeans and other farm products before spring. He also stated that Washington and Beijing had held talks on the subject and that some purchases are already underway.

Reciprocal tariffs on fertilizer have been removed:

President Trump signed an executive order to remove tariffs on a range of agricultural products, including fertilizer. Products no longer subject to the tariffs include, diammonia, monoammonia phosphates, and potash. The reduction in tariffs may lead to a reduction in production costs for soybean farmers.

NOPA’s October soybean crush numbers:

NOPA’s October soybean crush rose to a record 227.5 million bushels. This far exceeded expectations of 198-224 million bushels and last year’s 199.9 million. This data signals strong early-season demand and that the USDA’s annual crush projection of 2.555 billion bushels may be too low of an estimate. Soybean oil also hit an all-time record of 2.652 billion pounds, while yields fell to 11.65 pounds per bushel. NOPA soybean oils stocks rose to 1.305 billion pounds, which was slightly above expectations.

Weekly Export Inspections:

(for the week ended 11.13.25)

US corn export inspections came in at 80.9 million bushels, this was above expectations of 39.4-71.8 million bushels, and up from the prior week’s 58.4 million bushels. This is now the 2025/26 marketing year high, through the first 11 weeks.  This now places cumulative corn export inspections at 624 million bushels, a 73% increase from last year’s slow start of 360 million bushels in mid-November. It is estimated that to reach the USDA’s 2025/26 3.075-billion-bushel corn export project (just raised on Friday), corn export inspection will need to average 54.2 million bushels/week. Top export destinations for the week include Mexico, Japan, and South Korea.

US soybean export inspections were 43.2 mil bushels. This was within market expectations on 36.7-53.3 million bushels and were similar to the previous week’s 41.3 million bushels. Soybean export inspections continue to run well below last year’s pace. This week last year, 83.3 million bushels were exported. Cumulative exports are now 372 million bushels, 43% lower than last year’s 646 million bushels that were exported by this time. Top export destinations for this last week were Spain, Mexico, Egypt, and Turkey.

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