DeLong Commentary

CBOT Pricing:

Despite a sharp downturn following the WASDE release, both corn and soybeans ended the week higher.

Soybeans closed the day 9-23 cents lower. The Jan26 contract finished 22.5 cents lower at $11.245, ending the week 7.5 cents higher. The Mar26 contract fell 20.75 cents to $11.36 but remained 10.25 cents higher for the week. Prices moved lower on weaker export figures in the WASDE report and limited Chinese demand in the export sales data (read more below).

Corn settled 5-12 cents lower. Dec25 corn closed 11.25 cents lower at $4.3025 but still finished the week up 3 cents. The Mar26 contract declined 11.5 cents to $4.44, ending the week 2 cents higher. Corn prices fell after the report showed raised corn carryout by 44 million bushels to 2.154 billion bushels (read more below).

Market Headlines:

US – South Korea finalized trade deal:

The United States and South Korea finalized a trade agreement that includes $150 billion in Korean shipbuilding investment and US approval for nuclear-powered submarine construction. The United States will reduce tariffs on Korean goods to 15%. The agreement indicates strengthened bilateral trade ties.

Brazil’s Conab made adjustments to its corn and soybean forecasts:

Conab now estimates Brazil’s soybean crop at a record 177.6 mmt, up 3.6% from last season. Soybean exports are projected at 112.1 mmt, an increase of 5.1%, as Brazil is expected to benefit from subdued US export activity in the nearby months. The agency places total corn production at 138.8 mmt, 1.6% below last season. Corn exports are forecast to rise 16% to 46.5 mmt.

USDA releases delayed Export Sales announcements following government shutdown:

The USDA published the Export Sales announcements that went unreleased during the 10.01.25–11.12.25 government shutdown. The list can be reviewed HERE. Following the US–China trade truce, China made two purchases of U.S. soybeans totaling 332,000 mt.

 

November WASDE Report:

Soybeans: The USDA made no changes to planted or harvested acreage. It reduced yield from 53.5 to 53.0 bushels per acre, the estimate is within market expectations of 51.7–54.0. The lower yield reduced the production estimate by 48 million bushels. Beginning stocks were adjusted down from 330 to 316 million bushels, bringing total supply 61 million bushels lower.

On the demand side, the USDA lowered exports by 50 million bushels, from 4,351 to 4,300 million bushels. Ending stocks now stand at 290 million bushels (range of market expectations: 187–494), down 10 million bushels from the previous estimate.

Stocks-to-use ratio: 6.7%, a 0.2-point decrease from September and a 0.4-point decrease from 2024/25.

Corn: The USDA left planted and harvested acreage unchanged. Yield declined slightly by 0.7 bushels, from 186.7 to 186.0, a smaller cut than expected (average estimate: 183.8). Beginning stocks increased from 1,325 to 1,532 million bushels. Production fell 62 million bushels due to the lower yield, but total supply rose by 144 million bushels to 18,309 million bushels—an increase larger than market expectations.

Exports were raised by 100 million bushels, lifting total use by the same amount. Ending stocks are now pegged at 2,154 million bushels (average market expectation: 2,125), up 44 million from the previous report.

Stocks-to-use ratio: 13.3%, a 0.2-point increase from the last report and a 3.2-point increase from 2024/25.

 

 

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