Grain Market Commentary 11.13.25
CBOT Pricing:
Soybeans finished the day 6-13.25 cents higher than the prior settle. Jan26 beans closed 13.25 cents higher at $11.47, a 17-month high. The Mar26 contract closed at $11.5675, 12.75 higher than the prior settle. With the US government reopened, the USDA is planning to release all the daily 8:00am export sales reports that were recorded during the shutdown, alongside the November WADSE and Crop Progress report, at 11:00 am CST, a large data release that may drive volatile prices.
Corn gained 2 – 6.25 cents, supported by short covering and technical buying ahead of the USDA’s WASDE and Crop Progress reports. December 2025 corn rose 6.25 cents to $4.415, moving above its 200-day moving average. The March 2026 contract also advanced 6.25 cents to $4.555. Additional support came from South Korea’s purchase of two cargoes of option-origin corn, likely to be sourced from the United States. The market appeared to overlook weekly ethanol production data, which showed a decline (see details below).
Market Headlines:
President Trump signed a bill to end the longest government shutdown:
On Monday, the Senate passed legislation to reopen the government with a 60-40 vote. On Wednesday, November 12, the House of Representatives approved its version of the bill. Shortly after, President Trump signed the measure, which will fund the government through January. This action ends the 43-day government shutdown, the longest in US history.
Government agencies, including the USDA, are expected to need time to resume normal operations and reporting schedules.
The USDA announced the Export Sales data catch up schedule:
Following the government’s reopening, the USDA released a schedule to publish the Export Sales reports delayed during the shutdown. Weekly sales reports will not fully reflect total commitments until January 2, when all reporting is up to date. Additionally, all daily sales announcements collected during the shutdown will be released tomorrow, November 14, 2025, at 11:00 a.m. CST. Regular daily sales announcements, typically issued at 8:00 a.m. when applicable, will also resume tomorrow.
Doubts grow over US-China trade truce as soybean purchases remain limited:
After a brief period of buying following the US-China trade truce, Chinese imports of US soybeans have paused. Uncertainty remains over whether China will fulfill its pledge to purchase 12 million metric tons of US soybeans by January. China has not officially confirmed the commitment to buy the “agreed” amount. A 13% tariff continues to apply to US soybeans, which are currently trading at a premium to Brazilian beans.
Weekly EIA Ethanol Data:
(week ended 11.7.25)
US ethanol production fell to 1.075 million barrels per day (mbpd), down from the previous week’s 1.123 mbpd. This was below market expectations of 1.105–1.114 mbpd, marking the lowest production level in four weeks and 3.4% below the same week last year at 1.113 mbpd. Over the past four weeks, ethanol production has averaged 0.5% above the same period last year.
The “needed” average production level to meet the USDA’s 2025/26 corn-for-ethanol estimate represents a 4.5% increase over last year’s production. While it remains uncertain how the USDA may adjust its corn-for-ethanol projection in tomorrow’s WASDE report, current data indicate that the first 10 weeks of the 2025/26 marketing year are running below the USDA’s target.
US ethanol stocks totaled 22.219 million barrels (933 million gallons), down from 22.655 million barrels the previous week. Stocks were within market expectations of 22.0–22.9 million barrels and were the lowest stocks level in three weeks. Last week’s stocks were slightly above last year’s same-week level of 926 million gallons.
US ethanol exports averaged 157k barrels per day, up sharply from 107k barrels per day the previous week. Over the past four weeks, exports have averaged 142k barrels per day, compared to 105k barrels per day during the same period last year.
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