Grain Market Commentary 11.12.25
CBOT Pricing:
It was a relatively quiet day in the agricultural markets with corn and soybeans posting modest gains. This comes as traders are engaging in pre-report positioning before the USDA’s release of the November WASDE on Friday. The report is expected to include adjustments to both sides of the balance sheet for corn and soybeans.
Soybeans fell more than 10 cents before the open following reports of strong Chinese demand for South American supplies but recovered during the day session to close 4–7 cents higher. January 2026 soybeans settled 6.5 cents higher at $11.3375. The contract reached a session high of $11.345, which has proven to be a point of resistance. The March 2026 contract closed at $11.44, up 6 cents from the previous settle.
Corn finished the day 0–3.25 cents higher after opening slightly lower. December 2025 corn ended 3.25 cents higher at $4.3525. The contract tested a high of $4.36, matching last week’s high and sitting just 1 cent below the late October highs. The March 2026 contract closed 2.2 cents higher at $4.4925.
Market Headlines:
The US government shutdown could end as soon as today:
On Monday, the Senate approved a temporary funding bill, and the House of Representatives is scheduled to vote on it today. The measure would fund most federal agencies through January and extend funding for others, including the USDA, through September. It would also provide back pay to all federal workers affected by the shutdown and prevent federal layoffs through January. With support from Speaker Mike Johnson and President Trump, the bill is expected to pass quickly. Once the government reopens, it may take several weeks for federal operations, air travel, and food assistance programs to return to normal.
Thailand is increasing its US corn imports:
As part of recent trade negotiations with the United States, Thailand will raise its annual quota for feed-corn imports from 54,700 mt to 1 mmt. The country will also remove the existing 20% in-quota tariff. US corn imports will be limited to the February 1–June 30 period to protect domestic producers during Thailand’s corn harvest.
China’s Soybean Stocks are at a record high:
As of November 7, soybean stocks at Chinese ports reached a record 10.3 mmt, sharply up from 6.7 mmt a year ago. Stocks held by crushers stand at 7.5 mmt, the highest level since 2017, according to Sublime China Information. The increase comes amid strong imports from South America. Meanwhile, crush margins in China remain negative in many key regions.
This suggests limited short-term demand from commercial crushers for US soybeans. Brazilian soybeans continue to trade at a discount to US-origin beans.
Weekly EIA report delayed until tomorrow:
The weekly EIA report will be released tomorrow, Thursday, November 13. Delayed due to the Veterans Day holiday.
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