Grain Market Commentary 11.11.25
CBOT Pricing:
Soybeans slipped, closing down 0-3 cents. The Jan26 contract ended the day 3.25 cents down at $11.2725, while the Mar26 contract closed 1.5 cents down at $11.38. The Jan-Mar spread settled at a 10.75 cent carry, down 1.5 cents.
Corn traded higher today in anticipation of yield drops on Friday. The Dec25 and Mar26 contract closed 2.25 cents higher at $4.32 and $4.47, respectively.
Market Headlines:
China’s COFCO sealed billion-dollar Brazilian soybean and palm oil deals:
The state trader COFCO’s oil seed group said it signed agreements to purchase Brazilian soybeans, soybean oil, palm oil, and other agriculture goods. This deal totals a volume of almost 20 million tons and is valued at over $10 billion.
Meanwhile, China’s COFCO has purchased only modest amounts of US agricultural products, likely as goodwill gestures amid improving relations with the US.
The long-awaited November WASDE and Crop Progress is to be released on Friday:
The USDA’s November supply and demand report is usually not a market mover, but traders haven’t had this information in quite some time. The report will include information on 2025/26 US Grain Ending Stock, US Production, and World Grain Ending Stock levels.
The average trade estimate for soybean bushels-per-acre is 53.1, with a range of 51.7 to 54.0 bpa. The USDA was 53.5 bpa in September. The average trade guess for corn is 184 bpa with a range of 181.7-186 bpa. The USDA pegged the national yield at 186.7 in September.
Brazilian soybean planting is running behind last year’s pace:
As of last Thursday, 61% of the crop was planted. This is up 14% from the prior week, but during the same week last year, 67% of the crop was planted. Progress has been slowed by irregular rainfall in key growing regions.
Brazil’s first crop corn has been reported to be 72% plant, in line with last year’s pace.
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