Grain Market Commentary 11/10/25
CBOT Pricing:
The US Senate appears close to reaching an agreement to reopen the federal government (read more below). The news supported gains across stocks, metals, energy, and agricultural markets.
Soybeans futures ended the day 8–11 cents higher. Jan26 futures settled 10.5 cents higher at $11.275, while Mar26 futures ended 11.25 cents higher at $11.37. The Jan–Mar spread settled weaker at -9.25 cents, and the Jul–Nov spread settled firmer at +46 cents. Despite mostly bearish fundamentals and a softer cash market, soybean futures posted a strong performance.
Corn futures finished 2–4 cents higher on the day. Calendar spreads weakened as deferred contracts led the gains, with Sep26 showing the strongest advance. Dec25 and Mar26 futures last traded 2 cents higher at $4.2925 and $4.44, respectively. The Dec–Mar spread settled at -14.75 cents, while the Jul–Dec spread ended at -7.25 cents.
Market Headlines:
US Senate advances bill to end the government shutdown:
The US Senate voted 60–40 to advance a House-passed bill aimed at ending the government shutdown. The measure would fund the government through January, include three full-year appropriations bills, guarantee back pay for federal employees, and temporarily pause workforce reductions.
Republicans secured Democratic support by agreeing to hold a December vote on extending Affordable Care Act subsidies, a key point in negotiations. The bill still requires House approval and the president’s signature. Procedural steps could delay the government’s reopening until later this week.
Trump announced plan to pay Americans a $2,000 tariff dividend:
On Sunday, President Trump announced on Truth Social that “A dividend of at least $2000 a person (not including high-income people) will be paid to everyone.” He stated that tariff revenue would help reduce the nation’s $37 trillion debt. The announcement comes as the Supreme Court reviews the legality of the administration’s tariffs. A payment of this type would likely require congressional approval.
President Trump is demanding a new antitrust investigation of major meatpackers:
President Trump has directed the Justice Department to investigate major meatpacking companies for potential price fixing and market manipulation. The move follows his recent efforts to lower beef prices, which have caused friction with cattle producers.
Weekly Export Inspections:
(week ended 11.6.25)
US corn export inspections totaled 56.1 million bushels, within market expectations of 39.5–90.5 million bushels. Inspections declined from the previous week’s 67.4 million bushels but continue to run well above year-ago levels. During the same week last year, corn export inspections were 31.8 million bushels. Cumulative corn export inspections for the first ten weeks of the 2025/26 marketing year stand at 540 million bushels, a 66% increase from the 326 million bushels a year ago. Despite this strong start, export inspections will need to average 52.5 million bushels per week to reach the USDA’s 2.975-billion-bushel export projection, the third-highest shipment pace for the November–August period in the past 50 years. Top export destinations this week included Mexico, Colombia, Taiwan, and South Korea.
US soybean export inspections totaled 40.0 million bushels, near the lower end of market expectations of 36.7–62.5 million bushels. The figure was slightly above last week’s 36.2 million bushels but well below the 86.8 million bushels inspected during the same week last year. A lack of an export program to China continues to weigh on shipments. Over the past four weeks, soybean export inspections have averaged 44.3 million bushels per week, compared with 90.5 million bushels during the same period last year. Cumulative soybean export inspections for the first ten weeks of 2025/26 total 327 million bushels, down 42% from 563 million bushels a year ago. This marks the lowest cumulative level for this point in the marketing year in 16 years. Top export destinations this week were Pakistan, Egypt, Indonesia, and Turkey.
Let’s Talk!
Yield365 – Grain Marketing Simplified
Call: 815.823.2522
Click HERE to learn more
Click HERE to view previous market commentary
Disclaimer: The risk of using futures and options can be substantial and individuals must consider whether they are suitable for their operation. Marketing advice is based on information obtained from third-party sources and is believed to be reliable but not guaranteed by Yield 365. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Marketing advice reflects our good faith judgement at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.