Grain Market Commentary 10/29/25
CBOT Pricing:
Soybeans ended the day mixed following two big days of gains and just ahead of President Trump and Chinese President Xi’s highly anticipated meeting. The Nov25 contract, entering its delivery period tomorrow, had more than a 16-cent trading range. Nov25 soybean traded sharply lower during the overnight, higher during the day, and fell back a little bit before the close. The Nov25 contract closed 2 cents higher at $10.8025 and the Jan26 ended that day at $10.945, 3/4 of a cent down.
Corn traded both sides and finished the day mixed. The Dec-Mar spread settled at -12.75 cents, in from -14 cents on Tuesday. The Dec25 ended the day 2 cents higher at $4.34 and the Mar26 closed at 4.47, up 3/4 of a cent. The short to intermediate tread in corn is higher.
Market Headlines:
China has purchased US soybeans for the first time in the 2025/26 marketing year:
Reports are that China bought three cargoes of US soybeans from the PNW and Gulf on Tuesday. This purchase come a day before the highly anticipated meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi. It has been indicated that there may be more Chinese demand for December and January arrival. However, the additional purchase of US soybeans is expected to be heavily dependent upon the outcome of the meeting.
US-Mexico trade update:
The United States and Mexico agreed to continue negotiations towards a trade deal. According to Mexico’s Economy Ministry, they are aiming to finalize terms before the 2026 USMCA review.
US trade deal with South Korea:
President Trump announced that the US had a “pretty much” finalized trade deal with South Korea. South Korea would like their cars to be imported to the US with a 15% tariff rate, to match Toyota, but officials said they are sharply divided with the US over the $350 billion investment package included in the preliminary trade deal announced over the summer.
Weekly EIA Ethanol Data:
(week ended 10.24.25)
US ethanol production came in at 1.091 million barrels per day (mbpd), below the previous week’s 1.112 mbpd. This was a slightly larger decline than expected; Market expectations were between 1.110-1.115 mbpd. This is 0.8% over last year’s same week production of 1.082 mbpd, well below the “needed” 4.2% weekly production increase needed to reach the USDA’s 2025/26 5.6 billion bushel corn for ethanol usage estimate.
US ethanol stocks rebounded to 22.367 million barrels from the previous week’s 21.919 million barrels. This is the first increase in stocks in five weeks and was at the upper end of market expectations of 21.7-22.6 million barrels. On a same week comparison basis, this past week’s ethanol stocks are the highest that they have been in 7 years.
US ethanol exports for the week were the highest in 39 weeks at 175k barrels per day. Ethanol exports rose by 45k bpd from 130 bpd.
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