Grain Market Commentary 10/28/25
CBOT Pricing:
Soybean futures closed 7 – 10 cents higher on the day. The November 2026 contract extended its rally, reaching a high of $10.915 before stalling in the late morning amid concerns over the US limiting tariff rollbacks (see below). The contract later eased lower to settle 9.25 cents higher at $10.7825. The January 2026 contract followed a similar trend, peaking at $11.08 and finishing 8.5 cents higher at $10.9525.
Corn futures ended the session 0 – 3 cents higher. The December 2025 contract gained 3 cents to close at $4.32, after reaching a session high of $4.3625. The contract filled the gap up to $4.3225; a level not traded since July 2. The March 2026 contract added 1.5 cents, settling at $4.46.
Market Headlines:
Preliminary US – China trade deal framework:
During a meeting between Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and his Chinese counterparts, the US and China outlined a preliminary trade deal. The discussions aimed to prepare for the upcoming meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi.
US concessions include removing the threat of 100% tariffs on Chinese goods, reducing Section 301 measures, and easing the focus on fentanyl-related enforcement. In return, China agreed to suspend rare earth export restrictions for one year, reduce retaliatory shipping measures, increase cooperation on fentanyl, and resume US soybean purchases. Both sides are also working toward a finalized agreement on TikTok.
The meeting between President Trump and President Xi is scheduled for Thursday (Wednesday evening CST) in South Korea.
South Korea booked 3 cargoes of corn for February arrival:
South Korea’s NOFI purchased approximately 204,000 metric tons (8.031 million bushels) of option-origin corn in three consignments for February 2026 arrival. Cash traders indicated the corn will likely be of US origin, most probably from the Pacific Northwest (PNW), which currently offers the most competitive pricing.
Tension over Fentanyl tariffs stalled the soybean market:
By late morning, concerns increased that the U.S. may not fully remove tariffs on China’s fentanyl-related product exports. China has insisted that all tariffs be lifted before resuming US soybean purchases, while the US has proposed cutting the 20% levies in half. These developments caused the soybean market to stall and retreat from day highs.
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