Grain Market Commentary 10/27/25
CBOT Pricing:
Soybeans rose 10 to 25.5 cents following positive developments in US–China trade talks and the US signing a rare earth agreement with Malaysia and Australia. The November 2026 contract led gains, closing 25.5 cents higher at $10.6725. The contract traded its highest level since mid-June. The January 2026 contract traded its highest level since October of 2024 and gained 24.75 cents to close the day at $10.85.
Corn gained support from the soybean move, ending 5 to 8 cents above the previous close. The December 2026 contract rose 5.5 cents to $4.2875, while the March 2026 contract added 7.25 cents to finish at $4.4425.
Market Headlines:
US-China trade progress:
US and Chinese leaders reported progress toward a trade agreement following their meeting in Malaysia. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the recent threat of a 100% tariff on Chinese goods is now off the table. Bessent also hinted at an agreement that would extend the current tariff truce and defer China’s export controls on rare earth minerals. In addition, China is expected to make a substantial purchase of US soybeans. These developments set the stage for the upcoming Trump/Xi meeting later this week, where both sides are expected to reach an agreement. The news drove soybean futures higher overnight. Corn and wheat futures also gained support and traded higher.
The US will be launching an investigation into China’s compliance with the Phase One trade deal:
The US announced plans to investigate China’s compliance with the Phase One trade deal, one week before President Trump and President Xi are scheduled to meet in South Korea. Under the 2020 Phase One agreement, China committed to significantly increase imports of US agricultural products, particularly soybeans, with a target of $80 billion in purchases over 2020–2021. However, China imported only about 58% of the committed amount. A public hearing is scheduled for December 16th. The investigation could lead to new tariffs on Chinese goods.
Cattle futures closed lower on Friday:
Cattle futures declined on Friday following reports that Mexico’s Agriculture Minister and US Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins plan to meet this week to discuss reopening the border for Mexican feeder cattle imports. The reopening remains uncertain due to the ongoing outbreak of New World screwworm in Mexico. Futures prices also came under pressure from the Trump administration’s proposal to increase imports of Argentine beef to help lower domestic prices. Volatile headlines continue to contribute to market uncertainty.
Weekly Export Inspections:
US corn export inspections came in at the bottom of market expectations and marked a marketing year low of 46.7 million bushels. This figure is down from the previous week’s 52.2 million bushels and at the bottom of market expectations of 43.3-80.7 million bushels, but above last year’s same week of 33.8 million bushels – the 2024/25 marketing year had a slow-starting export program. There has been a notable slowdown in the corn export pace over the last serval weeks; The last three weeks averaged 48.8 million bu/week vs. the first five weeks of the 2025/26 marketing year which averaged 59.7 million bu/week. Despite this, cumulative export inspections now total 415 million bushels, well above last year’s same week of 263 million bushels. Top export destinations included Mexico, Colombia, South Korea, and Portugal.
US soybean export inspections were also at the bottom of market expectations of 36.7-55.1 million bushels at 39.0 million bushels. Soybean export inspections are down from the previous week’s marketing year high of 58.4 million bushels and sharply down from last year’s export inspections which were 96.7 million bushels. Cumulative export inspections are now at 247 million bushels, well below last year’s same time of 391 million. In order to reach the USDA’s most recent 2025/25 soybean export project of 1.685 billion bushels, it is estimated that export inspection would need to run at 31.3 million bu/week, nearly the same as last year’s 32.6 million bushels. Reaching the USDA projection appears to be an impossible task without a substantial US soybean buying program by China. Top export destinations include Mexico, Egypt, Italy, and Germany.
Crop Progress:
Due to the ongoing government shutdown, the USDA did not release its weekly Crop Progress report. However, private firms have continued to conduct surveys and research.
According to a Reuters poll of 10 analysts, the U.S. soybean harvest was 84% complete as of Sunday, while the U.S. corn harvest was 72% complete. At the same time last year, the USDA reported that 89% of soybeans and 81% of corn had been harvested. Last year’s soybean harvest progressed at the fastest pace in 14 years, and corn harvest advanced quickly due to dry conditions.
Producers have continued planting the U.S. winter wheat crop, which analysts estimate to be 84% complete.
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