Grain Market Commentary 10/23/25
CBOT Pricing:
Soybeans finished the day 7-12 cents higher. The rally in crude oil (fueled by US imposed sanctions on major Russian oil firms) and the announcement of the Trump/Xi meeting date supported soybean futures. The Nov25 contract settled at $10.4475, 10 cents higher than the prior settle, and the Jan 26 contract closed at $10.61, 11.25 cents higher.
Corn continued its uninspired trade for most of the session even as soybeans and other commodities rallied. However, it caught a bid and traded up after the Trump/Xi meeting date was announced. The Dec25 and Mar26 contract finished the day 5 cents higher at $4.28 and $4.3575, respectively.
Market Headlines:
Trump’s comments on domestic beef prices:
On Wednesday, Trump claimed in a Truth Social post that his tariffs have strengthened the ranching industry and said he wishes ranchers recognized this. Tensions between the Trump administration and the cattle industry intensified over the past week after he announced plans to increase Argentine beef imports. The post sparked a sharp sell-off in cattle futures.
US-China trade update; upcoming trade talks and proposed export controls:
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer are meeting with their Chinese counterparts this week to reduce trade tensions before next week’s planned Trump–Xi meeting.
The leaders expect to meet in South Korea. Earlier this week, Trump suggested he might cancel the meeting, but today the White House confirmed his meeting with Xi and announced that he will also be meeting with the new Japanese Prime Minister and the South Korean leader.
China escalated tensions ahead of the talks by restricting rare earth mineral exports. In response, the US announced a 100% tariff on Chinese imports, scheduled to take effect on November 1 if the two sides fail to reach a deal. At the same time, China’s new port fees on US ships (matching US fees on Chinese vessels) and reduced soybean purchases prompted Washington to propose restrictions preventing China from buying critical US software. The administration has not yet clarified how firmly it intends to enforce these export controls.
The US imposed sanctions on Major Russian oil firms over the war in Ukraine:
Oil prices jumped nearly 5% after the US imposed sanctions on Russian energy giants Rosneft and Lukoil. Britain and the EU also tightened sanctions to pressure Moscow into agreeing to a ceasefire. The US warned it would take additional measures if Russia refuses to comply.
The sanctions will likely push Chinese and Indian refiners, major buyers of Russian crude oil, to seek alternative suppliers.
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