DeLong Commentary

CBOT Pricing:

Soybeans closed the day mixed. The Nov26 contract finished 4 cents higher at $10.3475, while more deferred contracts ended 0–1 cent lower. The Nov-Jan spread traded as wide as -18 overnight and as narrow as -14.25, closing the day 2.5 cents firmer at -15.25 cents. The Nov-July spread settled at -51.25, nearly 5 cents firmer.

Corn settled the day 1–3.25 cents higher than the prior close. The Dec25 futures contract ended 3.25 cents higher at $4.23, while the Mar26 contract closed at $4.3575, up 2 cents. The Dec-Mar spread settled at -12.75 and traded at its narrowest level since April at -12.5 cents.

Market Headlines:

The Trump administration is to resume distributing $3 billion dollars in aid through the Farm Service Agency:

USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins stated that on Thursday, October 23, the USDA will restart core FSA functions, including services such as farm loan processing and programs like Agriculture Risk Coverage and Price Loss Payments. These services have been suspended since the start of the government shutdown three weeks ago.

Rollins also announced that the Trump administration will soon reveal details about additional support measures for farmers impacted by the US–China trade war.

President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping’s upcoming meeting; will it happen:

The two leaders are expected to meet in South Korea at the end of the month. If the meeting does take place, it is expected that China’s resumption of US soybeans will be on the list of discussion topics. Yesterday, Trump expressed optimism over the meeting but acknowledged it may not come to fruition. President Trump said yesterday,

“I have a great relationship with President Xi. I expect to be able to make a good deal with him and he’ll make a good — I want him to make a good deal for China, but it’s got to be fair. For years they were making $500 billion, $600 billion, $700 billion, $700 billion and we’d be making nothing. It was a one-sided — honestly, we built their military. We built China’s military with the money that we lost for so many years getting ripped off. So now we’re going to have a fair deal and I think we’re going to have a very successful meeting. Certainly, there are a lot of people that are waiting for it. And maybe it won’t happen. Maybe it won’t happen. Things can happen where, for instance, maybe somebody will say, I don’t want to meet, it’s too nasty. But it’s really not nasty, it’s just business and we’re going to — we’re going to do a good job representing you people and representing the people of our country.”

This statement from the President had only a little impact on the market, but it does create additional uncertainty.

The government will soon release details on a new plan to increase US cattle production:

USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins explained that the plan will open up additional acres for cattle production, aiming to make it easier for new ranchers to enter the industry. In addition, the president’s administration plans to build new processing plants. The overarching goal, according to Rollins, is to expand the US beef herd to help lower retail prices for consumers.

This announcement follows President Trump’s earlier plan to increase Argentine beef imports to reduce prices, a proposal that faced significant backlash.

Weekly EIA Ethanol Data:

(week ended 10.17.25)

US ethanol production rose to 1.112 million barrels per day from 1.074 mbpd the previous week. This was a larger increase than expected; market expectations were 1.040-1.093 mbpd. This figure in the highest level of production in 19 weeks and near the all-time weekly production record of 1.120 mbpd. Despite the strong week, production was only up 2.9% from last year’s same week production of 1.081 mbpd, compared to the average needed pace of 4.1% above year ago levels to reach the USDA 2025/26 projection of 5.6 billion bushels of corn used for ethanol.

US ethanol stocks declined sharply to 21.919 million barrels from 22.628 million barrels, despite the strong production week. This was a larger than expected decline; market expectations for stocks were 22-22.8 million barrels. This is the lowest level for stocks in 51 weeks. Ethanol stocks in days of production normally sees its seasonal low in November, so this week’s decline is stocks is not an immediate concern.

 Let’s Talk!

Yield365 – Grain Marketing Simplified

Call: 815.823.2522

Click HERE to learn more

Click HERE to view previous market commentary