Grain Market Commentary 10/21/25
CBOT Pricing:
Soybeans: During today’s session, President Trump stated that his meeting with Chinese President Xi may not happen. Despite the potential implications, the market showed little reaction to the news. Following yesterday’s rally and Trump’s latest comments, soybean futures ended the day 1–3 cents lower. The Nov25 contract reached an overnight high of $10.38, before settling 1 cent lower at $10.3075. Despite the dip, the close remains above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages.
Corn futures finished 2–3 cents lower across the board. The Dec25 contract ended the session 3.5 cents lower at $4.1975, slipping below technical support at $4.20, but staying above the 50-day moving average of $4.1675. Meanwhile, Mar26 corn closed 3.25 cents lower at $4.3375.
Market Headlines:
US-China trade update:
Today, President Trump initially expressed optimism about upcoming trade talks with Chinese President Xi but later suggested the meeting may not take place. This back-and-forth has added uncertainty to trade negotiations, which continue to have the ability to weigh on agricultural markets.
US-Colombia tensions have risen:
On Sunday, President Trump announced that the US will reduce aid to Colombia, citing President Gustavo Petro’s failure to curb drug production. Trump also stated his intention to impose tariffs on Colombia and warned of possible US intervention if efforts to control narcotics production do not improve.
Colombia has long been a key US ally in Latin America and a large recipient of US foreign aid. However, amid growing tensions and mutual accusations, analysts now say the relationship has reached a historic low.
US soybean shipments to China came to a complete stop:
For the first time since 2018, US soybean shipments to China have come to a complete stop. In September of last year, China imported 62.46 million bushels of US soybeans. The halt is a direct result of continued US-China trade tensions.
To meet demand, China has turned to South America – Brazilian soybean exports to China grew 30% year-over-year and Argentine exports jumped 92%. In total, China imported 473.99 million bushels of soybeans in September—the second-highest month on record. Without progress on a trade agreement with the US, China may face supply shortages while waiting for Brazil’s new crop.
Federal Reserve rate cuts:
Economists now expect two additional Federal Reserve rate cuts before the end of the year. The next cut is likely to be at the upcoming meeting on October 29, which would lower the fed rate to a range of 3.75%–4.00%.
Despite these expectations, uncertainty remains high for 2026. A recent LSEG poll indicates inflation is still projected to stay above the Fed’s 2% target.
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