Grain Market Commentary 10/20/25
CBOT Pricing:
Soybean futures traded at one-month highs. Contracts closed near the highs of the day at 9-14 cents higher. This rally is attributed to the flow of comments from the Trump administration that has been perceived as supportive. The Nov25 futures contract closed 12.25 cents higher at $10.3175 and the Jan26 closed at $10.50, 13.25 cents higher. Soybean were 6 of the 9 most active option trades. The trend in soybeans remains sideways.
Corn traded lower for most of the session, but strength in soybeans provided some support before the close. Corn closed 0-1 cents higher than the prior settle. Dec25 closed a 3/4 cent higher at $4.2325 and Mar26 closed up a 1/2 cent at $4.37. Spreads have continued to firm with Dec-Mar closing at -13.75 cents and Jul ’26-Dec ’26 settled -6.5 cents. Dec25 corn remains sideways, remaining within $4.0925 and $4.3125 since August 28th.
Market Headlines:
US-China trade talks are resuming this week:
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng will meet later this week in Malaysia. They will discuss ongoing trade tensions and prepare for a meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi set for later this month. These meetings come at a critical time, as the current trade truce between the countries will expire in November.
President Trump spoke over the weekend and said that he wants China to buy soybeans “at least in the amount they were buying before.” He said that “we can lower” tariffs on Chinese goods, but China has to “do things for us too.”
US and Australia trade deal:
President Trump and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese have signed a bilateral agreement under which the United States will purchase and invest in rare earth metals sourced from Australia. In return, Australia has committed to acquiring unmanned underwater vehicles and Apache helicopters from the US
The announcement follows China’s recent move to tighten export controls on rare earth minerals, underscoring growing global concerns about supply chain security in critical materials. Furthermore, the deal marks a deepening of cooperation under the trilateral security partnership between the US, UK, and Australia (AUKUS), reinforcing efforts to counter China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific region.
Trump administration is believed to be considering purchasing beef from Argentina:
The administration is reportedly considering this move as a way to reduce retail beef prices in the US. However, Bill Bullard, CEO of R-CALF USA, expressed concern over the potential impact on domestic producers. “We urge the president to protect the domestic industry from excessive, price-depressing imports so our industry can rebuild and expand to meet domestic consumption,” Bullard said. He warned that increasing beef imports may serve as a short-term fix but could undermine the long-term viability of the U.S. cattle industry.
Weekly Export Inspections:
(week ended 10.16.25)
US corn export inspections were 51.9 million bushels, slightly up from the prior week’s 47.6 million bushels, and were within market expectations of 39.4-63.6 million bushels. This brings cumulative 2025/26 export inspections to 368 million bushels, 61% above last year’s mid-October export inspections. Over the last four weeks, corn export inspections have averaged about 56.8 million bushels a week. In order to reach the USDA’s 2025/26 export projection of 2.975 billion bushels, it is estimated that export inspections will need to average about 52.8 million bushels/week. Top export destinations were Mexico, Japan, Spain, and Colombia.
US soybean export inspections were 54.2 million bushels, well above market expectations of 18.4-49.8 million bushels, and were up from the previous week’s 37.4 million bushels. This figure is still significantly lower than last years’ same week of 93.7 million bushels. Export inspections have averaged 35.7 million bushels/week over the last four weeks, compared to last year’s same period average of 62.2 million bushels/week. The absence of a US soybean export program makes it unlikely that export inspections will run anywhere near year ago levels, especially for the next 8 weeks which, last year, averaged 79 million bushels/week. Soybean export inspections top destinations were Mexico, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Germany.
*The weekly needed estimate incorporates the currently expected difference between export inspection data and official Census Bureau trade data.
Crop Progress:
The USDA did not release a Crop Progress report this week due to the ongoing government shutdown.
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