Grain Market Commentary 10/16/25
CBOT Pricing:
Corn closed 3 to 5 cents higher than the prior settle on fund short covering and pushed the Dec corn contract above the 100-day moving average. Initial corn yield reports have come in below year ago levels in various regions of the US. The Dec25 contract closed 5 cents higher at $4.2175 and the Mar26 contract ended the day 3.25 cents higher at $4.355. The CZ/CH spread narrowed today as US farmer selling remains low with strong export demand.
Soybeans closed 3 to 5 cents higher today from support by a stronger than expected NOPA crush report yesterday. SX/SF spread has pushed back into -17 cents after touching -19 cents earlier this week. The Nov25 and the Jan26 contract closed 4.25 cents higher at $10.1075 and the $10.285, respectively.
Market Headlines:
A farm bailout is set to be announced following the conclusion of the government shutdown:
Economic Council director Kevin Hasset stated that officials had original planned to announce the financial assistance program by October 7th. However, the ongoing government shutdown has delayed plans. No details were disclosed by Hasset, but recent reports have suggested the bailout will be at least $10 dollars, potential funded by tariff revenue.
The US is considering addition financial support for Argentina:
Yesterday, Treasury Secretary Scoot Bessent stated that the Trump Administration is with the private sector and other partners to provide Argentina with an additional $20 billion in funding. The aim of this financial support is to stabilize Argentina’s currency ahead of midterm elections.
Low water levels on the Mississippi River are expected to disrupt the flow of grain this fall:
River levels have remained low and are projected to decline further. The low levels are expected to challenge soybeans in particular, as the western soybean export program has been under pressure from ongoing trade tensions. It is likely that barge rates will rise, and transport efficiency will decline.
Weekly EIA Ethanol Data:
(week ended 10/10/25)
US ethanol production
Production was up to 1.074 million barrels per day the past week from 1.071 million barrels per day the previous week and the highest production level in five weeks. For the week, production was 316 million gallons, slightly above the previous week’s 315 million gallons. This past week’s production was 3% above production the same week last year. However, roughly 4.3% above last year’s production is needed weekly to meet the USDA’s 2025/26 corn for ethanol usage estimate of 5.6 billion bushels.
US ethanol stocks
Stocks held relatively steady last week. Stocks this last week were at 22.628 million barrels, compared to 22.720 million barrels the previous week. Stocks are above year ago levels, about +2.5%, and are the highest level they have been for the second week of October in several years.
US gasoline demand
Demand fell slightly from the previous week to just below 8.5 million barrels per day but was well within the most recent 5-year range.
Let’s Talk!
Yield365 – Grain Marketing Simplified
Call: 815.823.2522
Click HERE to learn more
Click HERE to view previous market commentary
Disclaimer: The risk of using futures and options can be substantial and individuals must consider whether they are suitable for their operation. Marketing advice is based on information obtained from third-party sources and is believed to be reliable but not guaranteed by Yield 365. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Marketing advice reflects our good faith judgement at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.