DeLong Commentary

CBOT Pricing:

Corn closed 3–4 cents higher. Gains were driven by fund short covering, as managed money is buying back shorts on increased export demand. The Dec25contract settled 3.75 cents higher at $4.1675, while the Mar26 contract ended the session at $4.32, up 3.0 cents.

Soybeans finished the day unchanged, although soybean products posted gains. Managed money is expected to be a small long in soybean oil after Trump said that the US could stop buying used cooking oil from China. The Nov25 and Jan26 futures contracts both finished unchanged at $10.065 and $10.2425, respectively.

Market Headlines:

Trump is considering a cooking oil embargo against China:

President Trump is considering a move to reduce imports of cooking oil from China in response to China’s continued refusal to purchase U.S. soybeans. He described China’s lack of soybean buying as an “economically hostile act.” In 2024, the U.S. accounted for 43% of China’s used cooking oil (UCO) exports. Trump stated that the U.S. can reduce its reliance on Chinese imports if necessary.

It is assumed that Trump’s remarks refer specifically to used cooking oil (UCO), which is commonly used in biofuel production. Imports of UCO have likely already declined this year, as the U.S. no longer provides a biofuel tax incentive for the product.

Soybean futures remained low yesterday despite strong export inspections:

For the week ended October 9, 2025, export inspections were 37 million bushels which is the highest level since February. Despite this, current US – China trade tensions continue to pressure futures markets. Additionally, the government shutdown has delayed the release of key USDA reports, making traders more cautious about taking larger positions.

Reintroduction of the Promoting Agriculture Safeguards and Security (PASS) Act:

House Republican Leadership Chairwoman Elise Stefanik (R-NY) and Intelligence Committee Chairman Rick Crawford (R-AR) have reintroduced the Promoting Agriculture Safeguards and Security (PASS) Act. The legislation aims to strengthen national security by prohibiting foreign adversaries from purchasing or controlling U.S. agricultural land and businesses. Congresswoman Stefanik stated, “The United States cannot allow malign ownership bids of American assets by [foreign adversaries] to undermine the efforts of our farmers, whose hard work feeds and fuels our communities.”

National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) report:

NOPA members, who represent approximately 99% of all soybeans processed in the U.S., crushed 197.863 million bushels of soybeans in September. This marks a 4.2% increase from August’s crush of 189.810 million bushels and an 11.6% rise from the 177.320 million bushels processed in September 2024.

The September crush significantly exceeded expectations. Analyst estimates ranged from 176.520 million to 195.000 million bushels, with a median forecast of 184.4 million bushels.

The average daily processing rate in September was 6.595 million bushels, making it the second-highest daily crush rate on record, according to NOPA data.

Soybean oil stocks among NOPA members as of September 30 fell to a nine-month low of 1.243 billion pounds. This represents a 0.2% decline from August’s stock level of 1.245 billion pounds, but a 16.6% increase compared to the 1.066 billion pounds reported September 2024. Analysts had expected stocks to fall to 1.220 billion pounds.

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