DeLong Commentary

CBOT Pricing:

Corn posted modest gains of 0–2.5 cents, with the nearby leading the way. The Dec25 contract took out its September 30th low during the overnight but managed to gain 2.5 cents on the day to end at $4.1325, while the Mar26 contract finished 1.75 cents higher at $4.29.

Soybeans closed the day slightly in the red. Nov25 beans finished at $10.0625, only 1.5 cents down after hitting a day low of $10.01, finding support just above the $10.00 level. The Jan26 contract finished at $10.2425, 1 cent down. The trend in soybeans remains sideways.

Market Headlines:

US corn and soybean harvests are likely trailing last year’s pace:

As of Sunday, a Reuters poll of 10 analysts estimated the US corn harvest at 44% complete, slightly behind last year’s 47%. Soybean harvest was pegged at 58% complete, compared to 67% at this time a year ago. National estimates varied widely, with corn ranging from 35–55% and soybeans from 25–70%. The slower progress has been attributed to delays in crop dry down.

US tractor sales increased for the first time in more than a year in September:

US tractor sales rose 4.1% in September, marking the increase in 13 months. The gain offers a modest lift to the farm machinery sector, which has been under pressure from reduced farmer profitability. Major manufacturers expect 2025 to be a low point for equipment sales, with limited recovery projected for 2026.

US – China trade war update:

The US–China trade war saw a new development as both countries imposed additional port fees on ocean shipping firms. The US began charging fees on China-linked vessels in an effort to reduce dependence on Chinese maritime dominance and support domestic shipbuilding. This move follows an investigation during former President Joe Biden’s administration that concluded China uses unfair policies and practices to dominate the maritime industry. In response, China implemented reciprocal fees on US-linked ships, effective the same day as the US fees.

Weekly Export Inspections:

(Week ended 10.09.25 | This report is normally released on Mondays, but it was delayed a day due to the holiday.)

US corn export inspections:

Corn export inspections were 44.5 million bushels, below market expectations of 47.2-65.9 million bushels, and down from the previous week’s 67 million bushels. This was the lowest of the first six weeks of the 2025/26 marketing year so far. Cumulative export inspections are now 313 million bushels and are notably up from last year’s 190 million bushels at this time. After this last week, weekly export inspections need to average 53.1 million bushels/week to reach the USDA’s 2025/26 export projection of 2.975 billion bushels – this estimate takes in account the likely discrepancy between official Census Bureau data and export inspections data. Main corn export destinations include Mexico, Colombia, South Korea, and Japan.

US soybean export inspection:

Soybean export inspections were 36.5 million bushels, at the top of market expectations of 14.7-36.7 million bushels, and up from the previous week’s 38.8 million bushels. This was the highest week of the first six weeks of the marketing year, but still well below last year’s same week of 70.1 million bushels. Normally, the first week of October would begin the “ramped-up” soybean export period, but given the lack of Chinese buying, amid the trade war, this year has not followed that pattern. Cumulative export inspections are at 149 million bushels, down 26% from last year’s 201 million bushels, and weekly inspections need to average about 32 million bushels/week to reach the USDA’s export projection of 1.685 billion bushels (this estimate takes in account the likely discrepancy between official Census Bureau data and export inspections data). This week’s main export destinations were Mexico, Spain, and Bangladesh.

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