DeLong Commentary

CBOT Pricing:

Soybeans futures ended the day 1 to 3 cents higher as trade tensions continued to ease. November 2025 soybeans ended 1.5 cents higher at $10.0825, while January 2026 finished at $10.2575, up 2.5 cents. The Nov-Jan spread weakened to -17.5 cents, approximately 67% of full carry.

Corn futures edged lower by 1 to 2.5 cents. December 2025 dropped 2.5 cents to $4.105, matching the post-report low from October 1. Buyers stepped in at this level during the session, preventing further declines. March 2026 corn settled at $4.27, down 2 cents on the day. The Dec-March spread widened by 0.5 cents to -16.5 cents.

Market Headlines:

US – China trade update:

On Friday, President Trump announced plans to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese imports and implement export controls on all critical software starting November 1. The move came in response to a hostile letter from the Chinese government outlining its intention to tighten export controls on rare earth elements, also beginning November 1. The escalation in trade tensions triggered sharp declines across U.S. stock and commodity markets.

Since then, both sides have “substantially de-escalated” the dispute, according to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. President Trump is now expected to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea. In response, several markets have made recoveries from Friday’s losses.

Weekend rainfall across the US Corn Belt: 

Rainfall remained limited over the weekend, with the heaviest amounts falling in central and northern Missouri. North Dakota, South Dakota, and Minnesota received only light precipitation. Over the past week, more widespread rain reached southern Iowa, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, and Ohio.

Crop Progress:

The USDA did not release a Crop Progress report this week due to the ongoing government shutdown. However, several private groups have continued to publish independent research and yield estimates.

• Ohio: The state recorded five suitable days for fieldwork as dry conditions persisted. Farmers have likely harvested 85–90% of soybeans, with average yields estimated at 53.9 bushels per acre (bpa). Many growers are now wrapping up soybeans and shifting focus to corn. Corn harvest is estimated to be 45% complete, with yields around 185.9 bpa.
• Indiana: Soybean harvest is nearly complete, estimated at 90–95%, and yields have exceeded expectations. Corn harvest began last week, with early results showing strong yields but high moisture levels, reported at 23–24%.
• Illinois: Favorable weather supported widespread harvest activity throughout the week, with similar conditions expected to continue. The state remains well ahead of last year’s pace, with soybeans 85% harvested and corn 60% complete. Soybean yields are running 7–8% below last year’s levels, while corn yields are down 8–9%, still outperforming expectations from mid-September.
• Iowa: Rain slowed harvest progress during the past week. Soybean harvest is likely 90% complete, while corn harvest stands at approximately 30–35%. The state appears more likely to meet the USDA’s yield projections for soybeans than for corn.
• Nebraska: Soybean harvest is nearly complete, with yields in the upper 70s to mid-80s bpa for irrigated acres in south-central Nebraska. Corn harvest is just getting underway, and early yield reports have disappointing. Farmers report yields around 250 bpa—10 to 20 bushels below expectations—and suggest the USDA’s forecast may be overly optimistic.

 Let’s Talk!

Yield365 – Grain Marketing Simplified

Call: 815.823.2522

Click HERE to learn more

Click HERE to view previous market commentary