Grain Market Commentary 10/09/25
CBOT Pricing:
Corn closed slightly lower today as harvest activity continues to shift from soybeans to corn. The Dec25 and Mar26 futures contracts each fell 3.5 cents, settling at $4.185 and $4.3425, respectively.
Soybeans gave back gains from recent days, pressured by a lack of fresh export activity. The Nov25 contract reached an intraday high of $10.30 but failed to hold gains as it seems farmer selling emerges near that level. It ended the session down 7.75 cents at $10.2175. The Jan26 contract declined 6.25 cents, closing at $10.38.
Market Headlines:
US – China trade:
US President Trump said he hopes to bring up soybean trade during his upcoming discussion with Chinese President Xi. He also noted that the United States may need to reduce a significant portion of imports from China if trade agreements are not reached.
US farmers are facing a soybean storage dilemma:
Accelerated harvest progress, driven by hot and dry weather, has left many farmers nearly finished with their soybean harvest. However, demand remains low and supplies are building rapidly. Farmers now face a difficult choice: store excess soybeans and risk spoilage or sell at discounted prices.
Chinese demand driving Brazilian soybean exports:
China has increased soybean purchases from South America, having made no U.S. purchases for the 2025/26 marketing year. Brazil’s soybean exports are expected to reach a record 102.2 million metric tons by the end of October. China accounts for 80% of Brazil’s soybean exports.
Uncertain outlook for interest rate cuts:
Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s September meeting indicate that policymakers expect additional rate cuts this year, though views vary on the extent. The majority anticipate two more quarter-point reductions, while six of the 19 committee members project only one or no further cuts.
Gold and silver have climbed to record highs:
Geopolitical tensions, expectations of interest rate cuts, and the ongoing U.S. government shutdown have supported strong rallies in gold and silver. Gold is up over 50% this year, while silver has gained more than 70% year-to-date. Goldman Sachs forecasts that gold could reach $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026.
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