DeLong Commentary

CBOT Pricing:

Corn traded on both sides of the market but ultimately closed lower. The Dec ’25, Mar ’26, and May ’26 contracts each ended the session down 2 cents, settling at $4.1975, $4.3625, and $4.4525, respectively.

Soybeans posted modest gains of 2 to 4.25 cents. The Nov ’25 contract led the way, closing 4.25 cents higher at $10.22, while the Jan ’26 contract ended up 3.25 cents at $10.39.

For both corn and soybeans, trading volume has declined since October 1st, while open interest is mostly higher.

Market Headlines:

Bipartisan Congressional Support for Domestic Ethanol

A group of 47 bipartisan members of Congress has urged the EPA to finalize its proposal for the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) program. The proposal is designed to reduce reliance on foreign imports and strengthen the US biofuel industry. Among the signatories is Sen. Charles Grassley (R-Iowa), who stated that the proposal “represents a commonsense approach that puts American farmers first, strengthens domestic biofuel markets, and delivers tangible economic benefits to rural communities.”

US-Brazil trade update:

President Trump and Brazilian President Lula da Silva held a 30-minute phone call yesterday, during which they agreed to meet in person soon, possibly later this month. The conversation focused on economic and trade relations, with President Lula requesting the removal of US tariffs on Brazilian goods. He also expressed openness to continuing dialogue to ease current trade tensions.

The Trump administration multi-billion-dollar farm aid package:

The Trump administration is preparing a $10 to $15 billion farm aid package aimed at supporting US farmers impacted by the ongoing trade war. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that package details were expected to be released today. However, no official release has occurred at the time of writing. The ongoing government shutdown may delay or hinder Congressional approval and rollout of the aid.

There has been another confirmed case of New World screwworm south of the US-Mexico border:

Authorities detected the case about 170 miles south of the U.S. border in Nuevo León, a Mexican state that borders the United States. This marks the second confirmed case in the state within the past two weeks. According to USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins, the case is isolated and unrelated to the previous detection. Officials plan to keep the border closed for the foreseeable future, which will continue to tighten feeder cattle supplies.

Upcoming Reports:

As a result of the ongoing government shut down, it is unlikely to see any “non-essential” government reports.

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