DeLong Commentary

Crop Progress:

Due to the government shut down, the USDA will not publish harvest and crop progress numbers today. However, the general consensus is that soybean harvest should be nearly complete next week, and corn harvest is just in the beginning stages. Yields have been highly variable and depend on moisture levels.

• Ohio: Soybean harvest is expected to be around 60-65% complete and corn 20%. Bean yields have been anywhere from 40-85 bushels per acre. Rain is forecasted in the next 24 hours but not expected to impact field work.
• Indiana: Statewide soybean harvest progress is near 70% or greater. Bushels per acre is 5-7 bushels better than expected.
• Illinois: Harvest is most likely 45% complete for beans and 35% for corn. Overall corn yields are expected to come in slightly below the USDA’s estimates. Some harvest activity was slowed this weekend due to dry conditions – there have been several reports of combine and field fires due to dry conditions and high winds.
• Iowa: Soybean harvest is about 80% complete with yields running 55-80 bpa. Corn is likely about 30% harvested but has also slowed due to dry conditions.
• Nebraska: Soybean harvest is nearly complete with yields being reported between 60-90 bpa, while corn harvest has yet to fully begin. The western part of the state is one to two weeks behind the east.

CBOT Pricing:

Corn traded a narrow range today with the Dec25 contract spending most of its time between $4.18-$4.20. There was a last-minute push to close 2.75 cents up at $4.2175. Continued export demand has supported spreads, the Dec-Mar gained a 1/4 cent to -16.5.

Soybeans traded higher during the overnight but lost that strength during the day session. Nov25 soybeans finished down but just by a 1/4 cent to close at $10.105.

Market Headlines:

The government shutdown is set to continue into this week:

Last Friday, the Senate failed to pass either the Democratic or Republican plan to extend federal funding. The Democratic plan proposal would extend funding through October and includes an extension of health care tax credits, while the GOP proposal would fund the government through November 21st. House Speaker Mike Johnson has cancelled the return of the House this week in order to put pressure of the Senate.

Nearly half of the USDA’s employees have been furloughed during the shutdown which has disrupted government data collection and reporting – the USDA’s October Crop Production and WASDE report, scheduled for Thursday, is unlikely to be released during the shutdown.

US – China trade update:

According to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, the next round of trade talks may produce a breakthrough and resolve the ongoing soybean dispute. These talks are set to take place between Trump and Chinese President Xi in South Korea later this month. In addition, President Trump is expected to announce a new aid package for farmers this week.

Farm bankruptcies continue to rise:

Since 2022, bankruptcies have trended higher. Since that time corn prices have dropped about 50% and soybean prices have dropped by about 40%. There were 93 farm bankruptcies filings in the second quarter, compared to 88 in the first quarter and 47 in the fourth quarter of ’24.

The USDA projects that farm income will rise this year, 3/4th of that growth is expected to come from increased government payments.

Weekly Export Inspections:

(week ended 10/02/25)

Despite the government shutdown, USDA’s Export Inspection data was released this morning as FGIA grain inspections services are deemed necessary which allowed for data collection and release as normal. 

US corn export inspections were 63.0 million bushels, at the top of market expectations of 55.1-65.0 million bushels, slightly higher than last week’s 60.6 million bushels, and well over last year’s same week of 37.3 million bushels. This is the highest of the five weeks of the 2025/26 marketing year. Cumulative export inspections have reached 264 million bushels of the USDA’s current export projection of 2.975 billion.

US soybean export inspections were 28.2 million bushels, at the top end of market expectations of 22-29.4 million bushels, were up from the previous week’s 22.4 million bushels, but well below last year’s same-week export inspections of 59.7 million bushels. Cumulative export inspections are now 111 million bushels, below last year’s 131 million bushels this same time. Soybean export inspections will need to average roughly 32.1 million bushels/week.

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