DeLong Commentary

CBOT Pricing:

Corn finished 1-3 cents lower on the day after trading both sides. On the week, corn was down 3 cents. The Dec25 futures contract closed 2.25 cents lower at $4.19 and the Mar26 closed 1.5 cents down at $4.3575.

Soybeans closed 4-7 cents lower. The Nov25 contract finished 6.75 cents down at $10.18 after rejecting trade above the 200-day moving average ($10.28). The Jan26 closed 5.5 cents down at $10.3625

Market Headlines:

Trump is considering a $10-14 billion aid package for US farmers:

This bailout could be funded by tariff revenues, with payments possibly beginning in just a few months. This aid package would be targeted toward soybean producers, who are expected to lose about $100 per acre this year. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the details for the aid package could be announced as soon as next Tuesday. However, Trump is expected to meet with Chinese President Xi on later this month to encourage increased soybean purchases. The results of this meeting could affect the scope of the aid package.

Argentina will get support from the US through a $20 billion swap line:

Top Argentine officials will be in Washington DC today to discuss the deal. Treasury Secretary Bessent did say that US support would only come in the form of swap line, not a direct investment. This announcement that the US is essentially bailing out Argentina has sparked outrage among US farmers, because Argentina undercut them with a large volume of soybean sales to China last week.

S&P Global has lowered its estimates for corn and soybean yield and production:

S&P Global adjusted their corn yield down to 18.5.5 bushels per acre from 189.1 bpa and corn production down to 16.71 billion bushels compared their prior estimate of 16.77 billion bushels. They also revised their soybean yield projection from 53.8 bpa to 53 bpa. The firm’s soybean production estimate was changed down to 4.26 billion bushels from 4.31 billion bushels.

USDA Weekly Drought Monitor:

The USDA released its weekly drought monitor data on Thursday. A large portion of the Corn Belt has experienced above-normal temperature this last week and heavy rainfall in some areas. Drought conditions have improved greatly in Ohio and Kentuckey and more modestly in Indiana and Missouri. Part of Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, and Iowa had limited rainfall which led to deteriorating drought conditions. In the High Plains, most areas have remained drought free and further improvement in South Dakota.

US areas experiencing drought: 

• Corn: 28%
• Soybeans: 37%
• Winter Wheat: 45%
• Spring Wheat: 13%
• Cattle: 24%

Upcoming Reports:

• Monday – 10.06.25: USDA Crop Progress at 3:00 pm CST
• Wednesday – 10.08.25: Weekly EIA Ethanol Production and Stocks at 10:30 am CST
• Thursday – 10.09.25: October USDA WASDE at 11:00 am CST

*May vary due to government shutdown

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