DeLong Commentary

CBOT Pricing:

Corn posted gains of 3-5 cents. With follow through strength from yesterday’s rally and early yields running below year ago levels the Dec25 and Mar26 contracts closed 4.75 cents higher than the prior settle at $4.2125 and $4.375, respectively.

Soybeans saw a 7-10 gain today. There was short covering after US Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that there will be some form of support announcement next Tuesday for US farmers. This pushed the Nov25 contract to close 9.25 cents up at $10.2225 and the Jan26 to close at $10.40, 9.0 cents higher.

Market Headlines:

The US dollar weakened for the fourth straight session:

Yesterday, the US dollar declined for the fourth day in a row, marking it the dollar’s longest losing streak in a month. These losses come amid a government shut down, the first in nearly seven years, and just after an unexpected decline in private-sector payrolls. Governent shutdowns have historically put pressure on the US dollar and traders show signs of expecting further downside. ADP data showed payrolls fell by 32,000, compared to market expectations of a 51,000 gain. This reinforcing bets on at least two Federal Reserve rate cuts this year.

The impact on commodities: The US dollar has lost nearly 14% compared to the Brazilian Real since the beginning of the year. This could be why soybeans continue to trade above ten dollars rather than below.

Government shutdown will interrupt payments for US farmers:

The government shutdown that began yesterday will stop some payments to farmers and delay access to federal farm loans. The USDA has stopped issuing weather-related disaster payments, accepting and processing farm loans, and providing technical assistance for conservation programs. In addition, they will not process annual commodity and land conservation payments typically issued by or in October.

USDA is unlikely release the October Crop Production and WASDE report due to the ongoing government shutdown:

The USDA website indicated that the WASDE report will be suspended until further notice. It is likely that during the shutdown that there will also be no 8am USDA sales announcements, weekly export sales reports, CFTC reports, or Non-Farm Payrolls.

StoneX adjusted its US corn and soybean yield:

Yesterday, the firm lowered their US corn yield estimate from 186.9 bushels per acre to 185.9 bpa. Although yield was reduced, StoneX raised its corn production estimate to 16.74 billion bushels after incorporating the USDA’s updated acreage numbers in the September report. The firm increased their soybean yield estimate to 53.9 from 53.2 and soybean production was raised from 4.33 billion bushels, compared to the last estimate of 4.26 billion bushels.

Upcoming Reports:

• Monday – 10.06.25: USDA Crop Progress at 3:00 pm CST
• Thursday – 10.09.25: October USDA WASDE at 11:00 am CST

*May vary due to government shutdown

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