DeLong Commentary

CBOT Pricing:

Corn traded lower earlier in the session before gaining support from a soybean rally. The Dec25 contract hit a low of $4.105, the lowest level it has been in a month, before rebounding. As soybeans moved higher, corn followed, posting gains of 1 to 3 cents above the prior settle. The Dec25 contract closed at $4.165, up 1 cent on the day, while the Mar26 contract finished 0.75 cents higher at $4.3275. The Dec-Mar spread firmed to close at 16.25 cents.

Soybeans reached their lowest levels in nearly two months during the overnight session, pressured by reports of strong US yields and weaker corn performance following Tuesday’s USDA report. The Nov25 contract declined to $9.9375 before rebounding sharply, rallying 12 cents within 30 minutes around midday to reach $10.10. The contract pulled back to $10.05 before news emerged that President Trump would soon meet with Chinese President Xi, with soybeans expected to be a key discussion point. The announcement spurred additional buying, pushing the Nov25 contract to $10.20. It ultimately closed at $10.13, up 11.25 cents on the day, while the Jan26 contract ended 10.75 cents higher at $10.31.

Weekly EIA Ethanol Data:

(week ended 9.26.25)

US ethanol production: 

Weekly ethanol production declined to a 20-week low of 995,000 barrels per day, down from 1.024 million barrels per day (mbpd) the previous week. This marks a 2.0% decrease from the same week last year, which saw production at 1.015 mbpd. In contrast, the prior 4-week average had been 1.8% above the same period last year. The decline was more than expectations, which expected this last week’s production to be at 1.004 to 1.019 mbpd. While the decline was sharper than anticipated, seasonally lower ethanol production in September is common, and a rebound would typically be expected in the weeks ahead. To meet the USDA’s 2025/26 projection of 5.6 billion bushels of corn used for ethanol, weekly ethanol production will need to average 4.2% above year-ago levels through next August.

US ethanol stocks: 

Stocks declined to 22.764 million barrels, below market expectations of 23.000–23.687 million barrels. This compares to 23.468 million barrels the previous week, marking a 30-million-gallon drop—the largest weekly decline in seven weeks and the second largest in the past 16 weeks. As of late September, stocks are 3.0% below year-ago levels, after tracking at record highs for the same week through much of 2025.

EIA-estimated weekly US ethanol exports:

Exports fell to an 18-week low of 88,000 barrels per day, down from 112,000 bpd the previous week. For most of last year, historically strong export volumes supported ethanol production, but the recent decline will need to be monitored. If the slowdown persists, it could put pressure on the USDA’s 2025/26 corn-for-ethanol usage estimates.

Market Headlines:

President Trump is to meet with Chinese President Xi:

President Trump announced plans to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in four weeks. In a post on Truth Social, he stated, “The Soybean Farmers of our Country are being hurt because China is, for ‘negotiating’ reasons only, not buying,” and indicated that soybean trade would be a major topic of discussion during their upcoming meeting.

A partial government shutdown will begin Wednesday at midnight:

A partial government shutdown will take effect at midnight on Wednesday, following Congress’s failure to pass a new spending bill. Essential services such as food safety inspections will continue, while non-essential activities, including most research and non-mandatory data collection, will be suspended.

The Mississippi River is facing historically low water levels for the fourth year in a row:

For the fourth consecutive year, the Mississippi River is experiencing historically low water levels, disrupting grain transportation. Nearly half of U.S. corn and soybean exports travel down the river by barge before being loaded for export. Due to the low levels, authorities have implemented restrictions on barge draft and tow sizes, reducing shipping capacity by 79% over the past month. As a result, barge freight rates have climbed, placing additional pressure on basis levels.

President Trump will meet with Argentine President Javier Milei on October 14th:

President Trump is also scheduled to meet with Argentine President Javier Milei on October 14th. Argentina is seeking a $20 billion US credit swap to provide dollar liquidity amid a weakening peso. The proposed deal has drawn criticism from some Trump allies, who argue it amounts to a U.S. bailout of Argentina. Shortly after the deal was announced, Argentina temporarily suspended export taxes on grains, prompting a large soybean purchase from China and intensifying competition for U.S. farmers.

Upcoming Reports:

• Thursday – 10.02.2025: Export Sales at 7:30 am CST
• Monday – 10.06.25: USDA Crop Progress at 3:00 pm CST
• Thursday – 10.09.25: October USDA WASDE at 11:00 am CST

*May vary due to government shutdown

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