Grain Market Commentary 1/9/26
CBOT Pricing:
Corn traded on both sides of unchanged but finished the day 0–1 cent lower. The Mar26, May26, and Jul26 contracts each closed 1/4 cent lower at $4.455, $4.54, and $4.605, respectively. For the week, both the Mar26 and May26 contracts gained 8.25 cents (2%), though the overall trend in corn remains sideways.
Soybeans spent most of the session trading in the green but finished closer to the day’s lows, closing 1–2 cents higher than the prior settle. Throughout the week, soybeans found support from Chinese buying and rising RIN credits. The Mar26 and May26 contracts both closed 1.25 cents higher at $10.6125 and $10.7325, respectively.
Market Headlines:
January USDA reports are due out Monday, January 12th:
USDA will release multiple major reports on Monday at 11:00 a.m. CST, including the Annual Crop Production report, the quarterly Grain Stocks report, the monthly WASDE report, and the Winter Wheat Seedings report. A notable surprise in any single report could significantly impact other data, creating the potential for unforeseen shifts across US balance sheets.
World food prices have decreased for the fourth consecutive month:
According to the UN Food Price Index, global food prices fell in December to their lowest level since January. The index is down 3 points (2.3%) year over year and nearly 36 points (22%) below the March 2022 peak. Declines in dairy, meat, and vegetable oil prices led the overall decrease.
USDA Weekly Drought Monitor:
Areas of the Corn Belt experienced well-above-normal temperatures last week. Some areas received rainfall, but a mostly warm and dry winter has led to deteriorating drought conditions across the region. Currently, 37% of the Corn Belt is experiencing some level of drought, up from 29% during the same week last year.
Most of the High Plains also experienced above-normal temperatures last week, with some areas running as much as 15 degrees Fahrenheit above average. Similar to the Corn Belt, drought conditions in the High Plains have worsened due to the warm and dry weather.
US Areas Experiencing Drought:
Corn: 32%
Soybeans: 38%
Winter Wheat: 42%
Sugarbeets: 29%
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