Grain market Commentary 1/8/26
CBOT Pricing:
Corn ended the day mixed, seemingly ignoring the well-advertised start of the index-rebalancing period. The market faced downward pressure from a disappointing weekly export sales report (read more below). The Mar26 contract closed 3/4 of a cent lower at $4.455. The May26 contract ended unchanged at $4.54, while the Jul26 contract closed 3/4 of a cent higher at $4.605. The Mar–May spread softened to -8 cents.
Soybeans closed 2–6 cents lower as traders believe China is nearly 90% covered on its 12 mmt purchase commitment and question whether buying will slow in the coming weeks due to cheaper South American values. The Mar26 contract closed 5.75 cents lower at $10.61, while May26 futures ended the day down 5.5 cents at $10.7325.
Market Headlines:
US mortgage rates have fallen to their lowest level in over a year:
The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell to 6.25% for the week ending 1/2/26. The 30-year jumbo rate, typically used to finance higher-priced homes, declined to 6.32%, marking its lowest level since April 2023.
Lower borrowing costs have supported housing activity, with home purchase contracts increasing in each of the last four months.
Trump backs sanctions targeting Russian oil buyers:
President Trump will allow a bipartisan Russia sanctions bill to advance. The legislation targets countries buying Russian oil, including China, India, and Brazil. If enacted, the bill could disrupt global trade flows and increase geopolitical risk in energy markets.
French famers protesting the EU-Mercosur trade deal:
French farmers blocked roads in Paris to protest the proposed EU–Mercosur trade agreement. Farmers argue that the deal would expose them to cheaper imports while subjecting them to stricter domestic regulations. The protests add pressure on French President Macron ahead of the EU’s vote on the agreement Friday.
USDA weekly grain export sales:
This week’s report brought export sales data current following delays caused by the government shutdown. For the week ending 1/1/26, corn sales totaled 14.9 million bushels, a marketing-year low and below market expectations. In comparison, over the past four weeks, corn sales averaged 49.8 million bushels per week. Soybean sales met expectations at 32.3 million bushels. Wheat sales totaled 4.4 million bushels, below market expectations of 7.35–18.37 million bushels.
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