Grain Market Commentary 1/7/26
CBOT Pricing:
Corn closed 1-3 cents higher today. Strength in soybeans was the main driver as there was not much supportive fundamental news. The Mar26 and May26 contracts gained 2.75 cents to close at $4.4675 and $4.54, respectively. The trend in corn remains sideways.
Soybeans posted gains, rallying for the second of the three last sessions. Soybeans held the gains based on reports of a continued buying program from China. The Mar26 and May26 contracts both finished the day 10.75 cents higher to close at $10.67 and $10.7875. The strength in soybeans this week has not been enough to turn the technical downtrends.
Market Headlines:
President Trump unveiled a plan to refine and sell up to 50 million barrels of Venezuelan oil:
Following Maduro’s capture, the US and Venezuela’s state-owned oil company are negotiating a deal that would give the US control over the sale of Venezuelan oil. Trump stated that Venezuela would sell up to 50 million barrels of oil to the US at “market price,” and that the US would control how Venezuela uses the proceeds.
US Farmer sentiment declined in December:
Purdue University’s CME Group Ag Barometer Index fell 3 points from November to 136, driven by a weaker long-term outlook among farmers.
Nineteen percent of respondents said they are uncertain about how the new tariff policy will affect the agricultural economy over the long run. Eighty-four percent said they are concerned or very concerned about rising competition from Brazil and its impact on US soybean exports. However, 75% of respondents said they believe the US is headed in the right direction.
Weekly EIA Ethanol Production:
(week ended 1.2.26)
US ethanol production fell to 1.098 million barrels per day from 1.120 million barrels per day the prior week. Production came in within market expectations of 1.090–1.130 mbpd and was slightly below the same-week production rate of 1.102 mbpd last year. While production remains in line with the pace needed, year-over-year gains must improve from January through August to reach the USDA’s 2025/26 corn-for-ethanol usage estimate of 5.6 billion bushels.
US ethanol stocks rose to 23.652 million barrels from 22.944 million barrels the previous week. Stocks landed at the upper end of market expectations of 23.0–23.7 million barrels but remained below last year’s same-week level of 1.014 billion gallons.
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