Grain Market Commentary 1/6/2026
CBOT Pricing:
Corn closed 0-2 cents lower, following soybeans. The Mar26 contract met resistance at the moving average and closed down 1/2 cent at $4.44. Historically, the Mar26 contract has traded higher in January in 8 of the last 10 years; 2024 and 2020 (COVID) were exceptions. The May26 contract ended the session 3/4 cent lower at $4.5125. The overall trend remains sideways.
Soybeans finished the day 5-8 cents down. Prices saw downward pressure from the lack of China buying interest and favorable weather forecasts in Brazil. The Mar26 contract also met resistance at the 200-day moving average, closing 5.75 cents lower at $10.56. The May26 contract closed 6.25 cents lower at $10.68.
Market Headlines:
EU agriculture ministers are expected to hold talks ahead of a possible Mercosur deal signing:
The proposed agreement would create a free-trade area with Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay. Italy and France continue to oppose the deal, citing concerns that domestic farmers would struggle to compete with imports from Latin America. These countries are calling for the agreement to include reciprocity in production standards. Depending on the outcome of this week’s discussions, a vote on the agreement could take place on Friday.
StoneX updated its Brazil’s soybean production estimate:
StoneX slightly increased its estimate to a record 177.6 mmt (6.525 billion bushels), citing strong growing conditions in December. Brazil’s Conab also estimates the crop at 177.6 mmt, while the USDA currently projects production at 175.0 mmt.
President Trump’s removal of Venezuela’s Maduro may have a large impact on Chinese Latin American investments:
China and Venezuela have long maintained strong economic and military ties. China remains a key lender to Venezuela and its largest buyer of crude oil. Although Venezuela accounted for only 4% of China’s oil imports in 2025, it remains an important component of China’s effort to diversify crude oil supplies.
The US action comes amid broader US-China rivalry. While China is unlikely to intervene directly and risk confrontation with the United States, geopolitical tensions tied to China’s strategic investments in Latin America could increase.
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