Grain Market Commentary 1/28/26
CBOT Pricing:
Grain and oilseed markets rallied on the open of the day session. Many commodities traded higher after the dollar hit a multi-year low on Tuesday. As the dollar recovered, several markets gave up some of the early gains, corn and soybeans both closed higher on the day.
Corn closed 2-4 cents higher than the prior close, finding support from the dollar weakness and the possibility of an E15 deal. The Mar26 contract traded at its highest level since the January USDA reports, gained 3.5 cents, and settled at $4.30. May26 futures closed at $4.38, gaining 3.25 cents on the day.
Soybeans posted gains of 6-9 cents. Mar26 futures closed at $10.75, up 7.75 cents. The May26 contract ended the day 8.25 cents higher at $10.8775.
Market Headlines:
President Trump spoke in Iowa on Tuesday:
President Trump addressed several issues Tuesday in Iowa, focusing on the economy and energy policy. He described the event as the start of “the campaign to win the midterms.” The president said that once lawmakers finalize a deal, he will promptly sign legislation to allow year-round sales of E-15 fuel. He noted that House Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune are actively “working on it”. Trump also highlighted farm relief payments, regulatory rollbacks for farmers and manufacturers, and recent trade deals.
Senate democrats have vowed to block DHS spending bill:
Senate Democrats have pledged to oppose the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) spending package amid controversy following a fatal shooting during a federal immigration enforcement operation in Minneapolis. The spending bill provides funding for DHS and several of its agencies, including Customs and Border Protection (CBP), Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), the Coast Guard, FEMA, and TSA, among others. The Senate faces a January 30 deadline to approve the measure to prevent a government shutdown. Senate Democrats, however, have said they will not support the package unless DHS and ICE funding are removed, expressing concerns about agency conduct and oversight after the incident.
Previously, the House approved the DHS funding bill in a 220-207 vote. A separate three-bill minibus appropriations package, excluding DHS funding, passed the House by 341-88.
Weekly EIA Ethanol Data:
(week ended 1.23.26)
US ethanol production averaged 1.114 million barrels per day for the week, down from the prior week’s 1.119 mbpd, but up 9.6% from the same week last year, when production averaged 1.015 mbpd. Over the past four weeks, ethanol production averaged 1.132 mbpd.
US ethanol stocks totaled 25.400 million barrels, slightly lower than the previous week’s 25.739 million barrels. The draw was modest and occurred during a period that typically sees seasonal inventory builds, with stocks having increased over the prior five weeks.
US ethanol exports averaged 157,000 barrels per day, down from the previous week’s strong pace of 218,000 bpd. Over the past four weeks, exports averaged 152,000 bpd, in line with the same four-week period last year, which averaged 157,000 bpd.
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