Grain Market Commentary 1/26/26
CBOT Pricing:
Corn closed 0-2.25 cents lower as the market pulled back from last week’s bounce. Export inspections came in within market expectations and provided limited additional support. The Mar26 contract closed 2.25 cents lower at $4.2825. May26 futures ended 2 cents lower at $4.36, while the Jul26 contract settled at $4.42, down 1.75 cents.
Soybeans finished 3-6 cents lower. The market failed to build on last week’s rally with limited new demand catalysts, while traders continue to monitor South American supply expectations. The Mar26 contract fell 6 cents to close at $10.6175. May26 futures ended 5.5 cents lower at $10.74.
Market Headlines:
Canada will not pursue a free trade deal with China after President Trump threated to impose 100% tariffs:
On January 16, Canada and China reached a trade agreement that allows up to 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles to enter the Canadian market. In return, Canada expects China to reduce canola seed duties to 15% by March. The agreement also removes tariffs on Canadian canola meal, lobsters, crabs, and peas from March through the end of 2026.
After the agreement, President Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Canadian exports if Canada pursued a free trade deal with China. In response, Canadian Prime Minister Carney said Canada does not intend to pursue a free trade deal – respecting its obligations under the USMCA trade agreement.
Monthly Cattle on Feed report was released on Friday:
Cattle on Feed as of January 1 totaled 11.45 million head, down 3% from 11.823 million head a year earlier. This is the lowest January 1 inventory in nine years. The inventory included 7.02 million steers and steer calves and 4.44 million heifers and heifer calves, both down 3% from the prior year. December placements totaled 1.554 million head, slightly above expectations but down from 1.642 million head last year and the lowest December placements in ten years.
Weekly Export Inspections:
(week ended 1.22.26)
US corn export inspections came in at 59.452 million bushels. The total fell within market expectations of 39.4–66.9 million bushels and stayed in line with recent weeks. Over the last four weeks, corn export inspections averaged 57.3 million bushels, above last year’s same-period average of 50.3 million bushels; exports continue to run ahead of last year. Cumulative export inspections now total 1.238 billion bushels, well above last year’s same-week total of 807 million bushels. Mexico, Japan, South Korea, and Vietnam were the top destinations last week.
US soybean export inspections totaled 48.704 million bushels. The total landed within market expectations of 33.1–57.0 million bushels and matched closely with the previous week’s 49.464 million bushels. Inspections also exceeded last year’s 27.140 million bushels, supported by China’s delayed export program this year. Cumulative export inspections reached 760.058 million bushels, below last year’s same-week total of 1.215 billion bushels, but the year-over-year gap has narrowed as China’s program progresses. China, Egypt, Mexico, Netherlands were the top destinations last week.
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